Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
921 FXUS64 KLCH 081720 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs today will again climb into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices ranging from 105-110. - Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into the early evening. These will be capable of producing high rainfall rates that could lead to ponding of water on roads. A couple of instances of strong downdrafts can`t be ruled out. - Higher precipitation chances are expected Thursday through the weekend as a tropical wave meanders across the northern gulf. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 Dewpoints in the upper 70s to lower 80s on this day after Labor Day has the entire gulf coast asking "when can we finally get a cold front?" Sadly, the answer appears to be not anytime soon as there are no real indications of any appreciable change in airmass over the next seven days. The best we can hope for is a passing outflow boundary or thunderstorm to offer some temporary relief. Today`s weather battle is the expansive upper level ridge over the entire south central and southeastern U.S. vs a very saturated atmospheric column (Observed PWAT of 2.26 and forecast to go as high as 2.4) and those rising temperatures. Expect convection to eventually overcome the subsidence this afternoon producing scattered storms although perhaps not quite as many as was seen yesterday. While the Storm Prediction Center has not highlighted any of the region in risk for severe weather, parameters supporting collapsing cells producing microbursts remains largely identical to yesterday which saw damage producing storms across parts of central Louisiana. Expect to see at least one or two of these develop this afternoon. Storms will again wane into the evening with a few possibly making it into the darkness, but these should succumb by around 9-10 PM. Ridging strengthens across the region Wednesday offering stronger subsidence and making it more difficult for convection to initialize especially across central Louisiana where it will be strongest. Guidance has uniformly tapered PoPs Wednesday afternoon inland although scattered storms will still be possible generally along and south of the I-10 corridor and offshore aided by a weak inverted trough/tropical wave across the northern gulf. Precipitation chances increase once again each afternoon Thursday through the weekend as the upper ridge flattens out and the aforementioned tropical wave provides additional support for convection. There is still no real indication by any reliable model that this wave will develop into anything more than a rainmaker later this week. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon potentially impacting all sites except AEX which will have fewer storms in the vicinity owing to upper level ridging building in from the north. Storms will dissipate through the evening with mostly clear skies and calm winds prevailing overnight into Wednesday morning. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 A weak upper level wave moving across the northern gulf will support high precipitation chances over the coastal waters almost continuously from Wednesday through Saturday. Away from storms, high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. will maintain light southerly winds and low seas over the coastal waters through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026 A tropical airmass will support a continued pattern of afternoon thunderstorms each day this week as an easterly wave tracks through the area. Afternoon MinRH each day will range from 50- 60 percent inland to 65-75 percent near the coast. Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the period, and this rainfall should help put a dent in ongoing drought conditions across much of the area. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66