Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
788 FXUS64 KLCH 130000 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 700 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level ridge will strengthen over the region through the weekend into early next week and be the main weather player. - Air temperatures and heat index values will be increasing with the daily heat risk rising to moderate to major over the weekend and nearing extreme levels early next week. - With the lack of significant widespread rainfall, antecedent conditions will also become increasingly drier. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 In the near term, typical summer weather for the remainder of the afternoon with heat index between 100 and 105 degrees. A few showers over the coastal waters are mainly dissipating as the move onshore. A few showers or storms may develop along the sea breeze, especially around the Vermilion and Atchafalaya Bay areas. Shower activity will be dissipating after sunset, with stable conditions over night with some patchy fog. The forecast is pretty consistent with an upper level ridge building across the southern US. This feature will bring in drier conditions aloft along with subsident sinking air. Meanwhile, a surface ridge will continue to ridge across the northern Gulf. The low level southerly flow will bring in Gulf moisture, however, the sinking air and drier air aloft will suppress any convection with no significant rainfall expected through the period. With lack of convection and likely more solar heating during the daytime, air temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 90s and triple digits in some locations. The main forecast issue will be forecasting the daily dew points in the afternoon. How much mixing that occurs and how much it lowers the dew point will be the factor in the heat risk. As for now, heat risk looks to increase into the Moderate (2 out of 4) to Major (3 out of 4) over the weekend, with the possibility of it nearing Extreme levels (4 out of 4) early next week. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 High pressure dome overtop the region will keep VFR conditions and low to nil rain chances in the forecast. Sfc high is situated to the east, ridging westward over the northeast Gulf, keeping a southerly fetch in the forecast. Winds will fall to less than 5 knots overnight and will increase again with sunrise due to diurnal mixing. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Surface high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf and into the coastal waters for the remainder of the week into the weekend. This will keep a mainly light to occasionally modest southerly flow in place. The higher winds will be at night. Seas will remain on the low side. High pressure aloft will build in that will keep shower activity at a minimum at best. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 High pressure aloft will be building in and this will limit rain chances as well as increase the heat into early next week. With no significant rainfall and plenty of daytime solar heating, antecedent conditions will become drier with increasing KBDI values. Light southerly winds will keep the humid conditions near the surface with afternoon minimum relative humidity values between 40 and 60 percent. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...11