320
FXUS64 KLCH 170419
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1119 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor river flooding is expected to persist over the next few days
  across portions of Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease
  slightly into the midweek ahead, but daily scattered
  thundershowers remain possible through Friday

- Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s midweek

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Earlier convection continues to diminish over land with the loss
of daytime heating and air mass becoming more stable. Still
looking at a very moist air mass in place and with a weakness
aloft will see a chance for nocturnal activity over the Gulf that
will try to make it inland before dawn along the coast.

On Tuesday, will likely see a repeat of scattered showers and
thunderstorms by late morning, with latest guidance favoring
higher pops over eastern portions of the forecast area, Acadiana.

Made some minor changes, mainly to the pop and weather grids based
on latest radar trends and hi-res short term guidance.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Our upper-level pattern remains steady, with a trough digging
across the central Gulf Coast. While the trough is situated
overhead, our wet pattern will persist, bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday. PWAT values remain
elevate, above the 90th percentile, supporting a Marginal risk of
flash flooding today and possibility again tomorrow. This trough
will eventually begin to shift eastward as a shortwave propagates
across the central Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. At the
same time, ridging will begin to build in, promoting more
subsidence and leading to reduced shower activity by midweek.

Due to widespread cloud cover, high temperatures have struggled
to climb out of the 80s. However, we cant rule out a few 90s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

During the second half of the week, convection will be primarily
diurnally driven, with less organized activity and more airmass
thunderstorms developing along boundaries. As the ridge continues
to build overhead, rain chances will drop to more typical
summertime levels of 30 to 50% with showers mainly in the
afternoon. Showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, generally
dissipating after sunset.

With reduced cloud cover, temperatures will begin to rise into the
low 90s along the coast, with a few degrees higher possible
farther inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

At the moment stable conditions across the area with VFR at all
terminals. This is expected to stay that way into the overnight
with the only exception at KAEX, where some patchy fog may bring
about MVFR conditions between 17/10z and 17/14z.


Again on Tuesday, a weakness aloft and a very moist and unstable
air mass will mean scattered showers and storms by late morning
into the afternoon. Higher chances are expected for the Louisiana
area, therefore will not have a PROB30 group at KBPT.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet with.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  91  73  91 /  20  40   0  40
LCH  76  88  77  89 /  30  40   0  40
LFT  75  88  75  89 /  30  60   0  70
BPT  76  89  77  89 /  20  30   0  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07