515
FXUS64 KLCH 171811
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
111 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Excessive Rain Outlook is outlined for eastern
  portions of the forecast area today while minor river flooding
  is expected to persist over the next few days across portions of
  Sabine and Neches

- Rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease slightly into
  the midweek ahead, but daily scattered thundershowers remain
  possible through the forecast period

- Max temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s by the end of
  the work week with min temps hovering in the mid 70s range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tomorrow night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Isolated to scattered showers ongoing mainly across the parishes
and Gulf waters, however we will see more of our afternoon pop up
showers and storms across most of the CWA within the next few
hours.

Currently there is a weak upper trough pretty much stretched over
the Mid West States down to the MS River Delta. This trough will
continue to weaken as it drifts eastward. However with a shortwave
rounding the base, we will see an uptick in our diurnal activity.
This activity is expected to taper this evening shortly after
sunset.

With the trough shifting off and the western upper ridge slightly
building into TX, PoPs will be isolated at best over there,
however we will still have iso to sct showers and storms tomorrow
over our eastern / southeastern parishes. Winds will still be
southerly and PWATs will still be high, so it will not take much
to get things going by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

High pressure across the western Atlantic is forecast to build over
Bermuda with ridging also strengthening westward across the NW
Gulf waters. Additionally an upper level ridge will develop
across Midwest Sunday before expanding further through the
beginning of the upcoming work week. There are signals of more
notable dry layers and inversions with above 700mb, however, the
proximity to the marine environment under steady SE`ly fetch will
still allow conditional afternoon thundershowers. From a
climatological standpoint, it would be encouraged to take
advantage periods of dry weather for outdoor chores / activities
as the latest 6-10 day CPC outlook still suggests roughly a 30-40%
chance above normal precipitation locally across SETX and SWLA.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An uptick in diurnal pop up showers and storms ongoing across the
CWA. This will continue through the rest of the afternoon, with
tapering into the evening. We could see a few areas of patchy fog
overnight, however the models are only hinting at VIS reductions
to MVFR. Whatever fog forms will burnoff shortly after sunrise.
The only other thing to note are elevated sustained and gusty
southerly flow. This will taper overnight, with strengthening late
tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Additionally, we will see
another round of iso to sct PoPs tomorrow afternoon, mainly near
the Acadiana terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet. 20-60nm waters off High
Island, Tx to Cameron, LA may range toward 2 and 4 feet with
slight strengthening of southerly flow across the NW Gulf on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  91  73  92 /  10  20  10  50
LCH  77  89  77  90 /  10  30  10  50
LFT  75  89  75  91 /  10  50  10  70
BPT  77  89  77  90 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...87