Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
924 FXUS64 KLCH 070529 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1229 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Residual low level moisture, light winds, and clear skies will bring about patchy fog into the early morning hours. - Very warm and humid conditions are expected until a cold front moves across on Thursday. An upper level high and dry air aloft will keep any significant shower activity form developing. - A dry continental air mass will move into the region behind the cold front and linger into the weekend. This will keep significant rain chances out of the forecast with lower humidity and cooler night time lows. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Residual low level moisture to go along with mainly clear skies, light winds, and stable conditions will allow for patchy fog to develop through the early morning hours today. Decent low level moisture will hang around allowing for muggy night time conditions and very warm almost summer-like days for today into Wednesday, before a cold front moves into the forecast area on Thursday. Upper level ridging and dry aloft is expected during the period, so not much chance for significant shower activity ahead of the front. Behind the front, a dry continental air mass will filter in lowering humidity values. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Strong high pressure from the Great Lakes will build down into the forecast area behind the cold frontal boundary. This will bring in a dry continental air mass in the low levels that will remain over the forecast area into the weekend. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will be noted over Texas with an upper level trough developing over the southeast U.S. This will help provide a dry northwest flow aloft over the forecast area. The combination of the dry air in the low levels, along with capping and dry air aloft, will keep the mention of rain out of the forecast into the weekend. Mainly dry air advection is noted behind the front. Therefore, air temperatures will be cool and comfortable at night and close to seasonal norms. However, with good solar heating expected and lack of overall cloud cover, air temperatures will be very warm during the daytime and likely slightly above climo norms. By early next week, the surface high pressure system will have moved off to the east with more of a east to southeast flow developing that will bring back shallow Gulf moisture to help bring warmer night time lows along with keeping daytime highs a little above seasonal norms to go along with more humid conditions. Upper level ridging will keep the mention of pops out of the forecast despite the increase in low level moisture. Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Shallow low level moisture will be found across the forecast area during the night. With light winds, clear skies, and a stable atmosphere, some patchy fog and low stratus is expected to develop at terminals through the overnight. MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions are expected after 07/07z. The patchy fog and low clouds are expected to dissipate by mid morning (after 07/14-15z) when daytime heating begins. During the day, scattered clouds expected to develop, however any ceilings that may form are expected to be at VFR levels. With dry air aloft, no significant shower activity is forecast at the terminals. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Remnant surface trough will help bring light onshore winds today along with low seas. Winds will become light to modest from the northeast by Wednesday as weak surface high pressure ridging across the Gulf coast states will build into the coastal waters. The offshore winds along with seas will increase by Thursday as a cold front moves into the coastal waters. Offshore winds will remain elevated through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Shallow low level moisture will be found across the region. This will bring patchy fog for the next couple of days overnight and during the very early morning. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to be between 50 and 60 percent through Wednesday. Despite the low level moisture, an upper level high and dry air aloft will help keep rain chances very low over the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 68 87 62 / 10 10 10 0 LCH 91 72 90 69 / 10 10 10 10 LFT 90 72 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 BPT 91 72 90 69 / 10 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07