Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
749 FXUS64 KLCH 080016 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 716 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeast Texas and southwest, central and south central Louisiana Monday. Maximum heat indices will range from 107-110. - While still hot, afternoon highs Tuesday will be tempered by cloud cover and thunderstorms enough to remain below heat advisory criteria. - Daily scattered to numerous (30-80%) showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon Tuesday through next weekend as a weak upper level low meanders across the northern gulf. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Happy Labor Day! Those celebrating outdoors today may contend with isolated to scattered showers and T-storms with the highest probs jutting across the Atchafalaya basin and gradually decreasing over southeast Texas. Storms and associated cloud cover will offer a brief respite from afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices ranging from 106-112. Even while celebrating, caution should be exercised during the afternoon and early evening during peak heating. The fairly sharp precip gradient comes courtesy of persistent upper level ridging centered over Oklahoma and Kansas building into southeast Texas offering suppressive effects while abundant tropical moisture remains in place across the entire region (00Z KLCH RAOB measured a 2.33 PWAT). With weaker subsidence with eastward extent, storms will have an easier go of developing and plenty of energy to go along with them given the forecast temps. SPC has highlighted the entire region in a marginal risk of severe weather for damaging straight line winds as strong, but generally unsupported updrafts will have the potential to come crashing back down as microbursts this afternoon. Storms will quickly lose steam after about 7 PM with just a few showers and thunderstorms possibly holding on into the late evening and overnight. A potentially wet pattern looks to be setting up through the rest of the week and into next weekend as the aforementioned ridge lifts just far enough off the northern gulf coast to allow a weak tropical wave to drift slowly from east to west over the next several days following a similar trajectory as tropical storm Edouard. Thankfully, there is no indication at present that this wave will develop into anything more than a rain enhancement mechanism. Rain that most of the area, with the exception of southeast Texas, still very much needs. The higher precipitation coverage and cloud cover is expected to keep temperatures near or, dare I say it, slightly below climatological normals Tuesday through next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 VFR conditions with light winds will prevail this evening across the majority of the area. The exception will be at AEX and perhaps LCH, which may see a few showers and thunderstorms move through over the next couple hours before activity wanes. Some patchy light fog may reduce visibility to MVFR at times after 10z, particularly for sites that saw rainfall today. Any fog/mist will dissipate by 13z with sunrise. Isolated convection is likely to develop Tuesday afternoon, but confidence in coverage was not high enough to mention in this set of TAFs. 64/Silas && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Low onshore winds and seas can be expected through the week as weak, broad high pressure sits just inland. A tropical wave moving across the northern gulf from east to west this week will produce daily shower and thunderstorm chances over the coastal waters and coastal lakes and bays. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Afternoon thunderstorms are expected each day through the week as a weak tropical wave moves from east to west across the northern gulf. Rain from tropical storm Edouard has provided significant drought relief over parts of southeast Texas but much of western and central Louisiana remain in ongoing drought. Rain this week should help improve the deficit. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...64