353
FXUS64 KLCH 201143
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
543 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog will again linger through the mid morning
  hours today. Increasing cloud cover will somewhat limit fog
  potential during next few days.

- Precipitation chances return tomorrow night into Friday ahead of
  a Pacific cold front that will reach the area late in the week.

- Well above average temperatures and elevated dewpoints will
  continue through the weekend into at least the first half of
  next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Dense fog conditions expanded across CenLA a few short hours ago
and have persisted. As a result, the Dense Fog Advisory was
expanded northward. These conditions will slowly dissipate after
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas of fog, which have already begun to form prior to midnight,
will be the main concern through sunrise, with Dense Fog Advisory in
effect for areas along and south of I-10. We could see some areas of
dense fog further inland, but for the most part it looks like better
cloud cover across those regions should limit significant dense fog.
Moving into the daytime hours, moisture continues to pool across the
Southern Plains ahead of a Pacific front that will eventually reach
the forecast area this weekend. As a result, a few streamer showers
will be possible across parts of SE TX today amid otherwise
unseasonably warm and humid conditions.

Tomorrow into Saturday, the front slowly slides across TX eventually
moving through the CWA Sat PM. Ahead of it, a swath of significant
moisture (PWATs above the 90th percentile) gets shunted overhead
bringing more abnormally warm and moist weather. NBM paints 30-60
POPs across the region on Friday and 20-40 POPs on Saturday, which
seem a bit high given a slightly drier trend in the global models
over the local area. Still, moisture will be plentiful and showers
and thunderstorms are likely to occur at least periodically
throughout Fri into Sat. Eventually the front moves through Sat PM
and brings a very small and brief shot of drier air that will allow
Sun morning lows to fall into the mid 50s to low 60s (compared to
the mid/upper 60s tonight and tomorrow night).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Long range guidance is somewhat split as we head into Thanksgiving
week, with the Euro depicting an overall drier solution vs the GFS
which wants to keep moisture in place until after the holiday. On
the Euro side, slightly drier air lingers on Sunday post Pacific
"cool" front, with a return of moisture on Mon followed by a small
shot of drier air late Tues and then a more significant front and
push of drier air Thurs into Fri. The GFS brings a steady increase
of moisture Sun through Tues until the passage of a front which,
like the Euro, brings some drier air into the region late Tues into
Wed. However, the GFS then brings a surge of moisture from the Gulf
Wed through Sat, resulting a continuation of warm, humid conditions
and at least small rain chances through the later half of the week.

Overall guidance (including NBM) is in agreement with a frontal
passage early Tuesday that will be accompanied by a line of
scattered to widespread showers and storms late Mon into early Tues.
The difference will be what happens Wed-Fri. NBM tends to meet in
the middle with small POPs lingering through Day 8 however, temps
begin to fall back to near or below seasonal norms on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Nearly all TAF and some non TAF sites once again are experiencing
LIFR conditions as a result of patchy dense fog and low CIGs.
These conditions are expected to persist for the next few hours
before slowly dissipating after sunrise. VFR conditions will be
likely from late in the morning lasting until tonight, where yet
another round of dense fog will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow and seas ranging from 1 to 4 feet
will prevail through the weekend into early next week as the
pattern remains somewhat stagnant. While no significant fronts are
expected, a couple of systems moving through the southern US will
bring increased rain chances Fri through the early part of next
week, with periods of showers and storms possible each day.

Tonight, a Marine Dense Fog advisory remains in affect for all
coastal lakes/bays through 14Z, with another possibly being
needed tomorrow as moisture continues to pool over the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Moisture will continue to pool over the area through the next
several days, with MinRH values not expected to fall below 50%
until late next week at the earliest. In addition, rain chances
increase tomorrow into Saturday and again early next week with the
passage of a couple of week fronts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  64  83  63 /   0  40  50  20
LCH  81  67  83  66 /  10  40  30  20
LFT  80  67  83  66 /   0  40  50  10
BPT  81  67  83  66 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ028-029-
     031>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ515-516-
     615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ430-432-
     435-436.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...87