Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
574 FXUS64 KLCH 252323 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 623 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A surface high to the northeast will bring a dry continental air mass to the forecast area. This will bring less humid conditions, lower nighttime temperatures, and no significant rain chances into Saturday. - Southerly flow and moisture to increase by late in the weekend and early next week with hot daytime temperatures above seasonal norms, and more humid conditions. - Next chance for significant rain chances is not likely until at least the middle part of next week as a cold front approaches the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 While still above normal, the cool front helped bring down temperatures and dewpoints, making conditions feel pleasant compared to what we had earlier this week. The surface high will continue to bring in drier northerly flow before moving off and allowing winds to shift out of the east, then eventually become southerly once again. Aloft, a high is centered over the TX coast, also helping to bring in some drier air as indicated by the 18Z sounding. This weekend into early next week, the upper ridge will weaken as it sinks southwestward into northern Mexico. Nevertheless, drier conditions are expected to remain in the mid levels. A pattern change will occur going into the middle of next week, with elevated rain chances returning and potentially lingering through the end of the forecast period. The main features in play will be deep moisture associated with what is currently Hurricane Polo in the EPac, an upper trough cutting off and moving slowly across the western CONUS, and another deep plume of tropical moisture surging northward out of the Gulf. While the models have not fully resolved the timing and interactions between these systems, the general consensus is that there will be an uptick in scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will bear watching, as a multiday heavy rainfall threat could develop. Temperatures will be on the rise going into this weekend, reaching the low to mid 90s. With dewpoints slowly coming back up thereafter, heat indices could return to the triple digits in some locations during the last few days of the month. Air temperatures will remain a few degrees shy of records, and heat indices are not expected to reach heat hazard criteria. Nevertheless, conditions could feel increasingly hot and uncomfortable during that time. By mid next week, temperatures could drop closer to climatological normals as a result of cloud cover and rain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 A mainly dry air mass will remain over the forecast area during the TAF period. Fair weather CU will dissipate after sunset leaving just some high level clouds. Air mass still looks dry enough in the low levels that significant fog development is not expected. Therefore, VFR conditions through the period. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Surface high pressure from the northeast will bring light to occasionally moderate east-northeast winds and relatively low seas through Saturday. As the surface high moves off the east over the weekend, a light southeast wind flow will develop by Sunday that will persist into early next week. By the middle part of next week, southerly winds are expected to increase as a low pressure system approaches from the northwest, along with increasing shower activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 High pressure at the surface will keep a light east-northeast flow into Saturday with drier continental air the result. This will make for less humid days and slightly cooler nights. The minimum afternoon relative humidity values will range from 35 to 45 percent. Meanwhile, there will be little chance for any significant rainfall or fog, Southerly flow and an increase in moisture returns early next week. However, any significant rain chances look to hold off until the middle part of next week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...07