Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
909 FXUS64 KLCH 301744 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly drier mid level air will work to the surface again this afternoon lowering dewpoints into the mid 60s to 70 and keeping afternoon thunderstorms isolated (20%). - A tropical wave or depression will move across the northern gulf from east to west Monday and Tuesday elevating precipitation chances Monday through Wednesday. Broad weakness will continue to support daily scattered thunderstorms through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Dry mid level air continues to be advected into the region around a broad upper level ridge presently centered over north Texas. As has been the case over the last couple of days, some of this drier air is expected to mix through the boundary layer to the surface this afternoon gradually dropping dewpoints into the mid 60s to lower 70s. The drier air will allow afternoon highs to once again climb into the upper 90s to near 100 with maximum apparent temps ranging from 101-109. Dewpoints will rebound again overnight into Monday as higher moisture associated with a tropical wave begins to advect into the area from the east. The evolution of this tropical wave (AL97) will have an outsized impact on the forecast through the first half of the week. Guidance is in good agreement on the disturbance moving west along the northern gulf coast before moving inland along the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday. NHC presently gives this disturbance a 30% chance of development into a tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, the biggest threat with this disturbance will be the potential for heavy rain Monday through Wednesday. Given the expected track, the highest QPF totals are expected to remain offshore with guidance ranging from 2-4 inches along coastal portions of southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana. There is presently a pretty sharp gradient in QPF with latitude with parts of cenla and interior parts of southeast Texas seeing comparatively little appreciable rainfall from the disturbance. The good news as it relates to flash flood potential is that the vast majority of the region remains in a moderate drought and flash flood guidance indicates several (4-6 inches) of rain would be required to initialize any significant flooding beyond ponding of water on secondary roads. At present, only outlier guidance depicts rainfall totals high enough to reach that threshold. Once the disturbance moves inland Tuesday, another weak inverted trough is expected to develop over the northeastern gulf which will maintain broad weakness aloft through the rest of the week. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be the result with PoPs ranging from 40-60% through next weekend. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 VFR conditions prevail. Winds are light and variable with fair weather cumulus developing throughout the day. KLFT and KARA have a chance of some showers this afternoon and evening. KARA has the potential for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon as the tropical system (97L) in the Gulf moves closer to land. The shower and thunderstorm potential increases significantly after this forecast cycle. Maxwell && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Light and variable winds with low seas are expected today with isolated showers and thunderstorms. A tropical wave will move across the coastal waters Monday and Tuesday. Winds will become more southerly with modest gusts as the wave moves across along with more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Should this disturbance increase in intensity, forecast winds and seas may need to be revised upwards especially Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Dewpoints are again expected to fall into the mid 60s to around 70 this afternoon as drier mid level air mixes to the surface. This drier air will keep rain chances isolated and minimum afternoon relative humidity values between 40 and 50 percent. A tropical wave will move across the region on Monday and Tuesday increasing dewpoints and RH. Minimum afternoon relative humidity will range between 50 and 70 percent with showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread. This rain will provide some needed relief from the ongoing drought across the region. Burn bans remain in effect for most parishes and counties and KBDI values remain in the 500 to 750 range. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66