Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
242 FXUS64 KLCH 012325 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 525 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm and humid conditions with patchy dense fog can be expected into Monday. - An upper level low will move a cold front across late Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms likely. There will be a potential for some strong storms and locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler more seasonably temperatures with dry conditions can be expected behind the front on Wednesday through the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 103 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A weak mid level circulation continues to spin over Acadiana producing mainly light to moderate showers across east central and south central Louisiana. This vort max is expected to gradually weaken tonight, and with that most of the shower activity should also weaken. Further to the west across southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas, conditions are expected to be more stable, to go along with clearing skies, light winds, and a very moist low layer. Therefore, patchy to areas of fog are expected for these locations. There is about a 30 to 50 percent chance of seeing visibilities below 1 mile and would not be surprised to see some locally dense fog especially over rural grassy areas. Upper level ridging will develop over the forecast area on Monday as a strong short wave moves east pf the Rockies. This should help wash out the mid level vort max. However, with a very moist air mass staying in place, a few showers may develop under the cap with daytime heating. The strong Pacific energy will continue to move away from the Rockies with a surface low developing over the Northern Plains on Monday with an associated cold front trailing south of it. This system will move eastward with the Pacific cold front moving into the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon and moving across during the evening to overnight hours. Southerly flow ahead of the upper level disturbance and cold front will bring in deep Gulf moisture with Precipitable Water Values increasing to around 1.9 inches which is well over the 90th percentile with the layer mean relative humidity values in the 80 to 90 percent range. Although the best upper level lift looks to be north of the forecast area, there should be enough forcing to work with the moisture to set up scattered showers and a few storms during the day on Tuesday that will consolidate into a line of showers and storms ahead of the front. How much instability and strength of low level shear will tell how strong the convection gets. At this time, guidance is showing some decent low level instability with MUCAPE near 2500 j/kg. The low level shear is rather modest, and profile is uni-direction. Therefore, if the low level instability can get going some strong wind gusts with the storms can not be ruled out. Also, with the high moisture values, and mean flow becoming parallel to the 85H-70H theta-e axis with the front, some of the storms with high rain rates may linger over some locations. Therefore, locally heavy rainfall will be possible that may cause some issues for nuisance poor drainage urban type street flooding. Northwest flow on Wednesday will bring in drier conditions, with more seasonal temperatures for the remainder of the week. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Scattered showers are located across the eastern half of the CWA. Overnight clouds a thick deck of stratus clouds will form with MVFR/IFR heights across the region. Along with the low CIGs fog will be a concern with patchy dense fog expected before sunrise with persistent MVFR/IFR impacts with occasionally LIFR VIS. After sunrise the stratus deck will lift and conditions will become VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 103 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Low pressure will develop over the Plains on Monday allowing winds to become more southerly and increase through Tuesday. A cold front will move across late Tuesday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Modest northwest flow will develop behind the cold front on Wednesday. A light to modest offshore flow will then persist for the remainder of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 103 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 An unseasonably warm and humid air mass will be in place through early next week with minimum afternoon relative humidity values from 60 to 70 percent. The high moisture will also bring about patchy fog at night into the early morning hours. The next chance for any significant rainfall will come late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as a cold front moves across. While this will be much welcomed it is not expected to move the needle towards drought class improvements. Behind the front, northwest winds will bring in drier conditions. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...07 AVIATION...14