Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
601 FXUS64 KLCH 291204 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 704 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much higher rain chances expected today and Saturday as significant moisture surges into the region ahead of another frontal boundary - These storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to nuisance street flooding. - Below normal temperatures expected through much of next week as a series of weak frontal boundaries pushes through the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Storms across central Louisiana which have been producing copious lightning over the last few hours are beginning to weaken at this hour although this lull is expected to be short lived. These storms are associated with surging moisture from a digging upper trof that will continue to work into the region today. CAMS guidance are in good agreement on convective redevelopment across central Louisiana by around sunrise before expanding across the region from late morning through late evening. Given the saturated column, most of these storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to periods of nuisance street flooding. Most of the region remains in a slight risk for excessive rainfall Friday per WPC`s latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook with marginal risks extending from Saturday through Monday. The severe weather risk appears limited although frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with some storms. Storms will likely linger through the late evening with gradual dissipation late Friday night into early Saturday morning. The significant rain and cloud cover is expected to hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s Another round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected Saturday as the trof and deep moisture remain in place across the region which will again hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. There is a bit more uncertainty regarding PoPs on Sunday with the ECMWF consistently drier than GFS ensembles. Scattered convection is still anticipated, but overall coverage may be somewhat lower than Friday and Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Gradually drier conditions will move into the region early next week as the deep tropical moisture is pushed offshore by a weak frontal boundary. This drier air will be reinforced by the passage of another weak frontal boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday. While afternoon highs will still climb to around 90, lower dewpoints will make the temperatures more tolerable while also allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid 60s to around 70 Wednesday night through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 704 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms have developed along a boundary sagged west to east across north Central Louisiana. Expect this boundary to sag southward throughout the day, combining with ambient moist airmass to bring about periods of showers and thunderstorms to all terminals. While threat is most primarily in the afternoon and evening, expect convective activity to be present through the period. Ceilings will vary from 500 ft to 3000 ft as showers move through the region. Winds will vary around the boundary, south winds south of the boundary, north or variable winds around the boundary itself. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Light onshore winds and low seas will prevail into early Saturday. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop today ahead of a slowly advancing frontal boundary. This front will slide toward the coast Saturday morning which should bring about widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will turn offshore from Saturday afternoon through the middle of next week as the frontal boundary moves off the coast and into the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Humidity will increase significantly today through Sunday as moisture surges ahead of a frontal boundary yielding widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of the weekend. The front will push through the area Saturday afternoon turning light winds out of the north through mid next week pulling some slightly drier air into the region Monday and Tuesday. A reinforcing frontal boundary will move through the region Wednesday maintaining the drier air through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 83 69 85 69 / 90 40 60 20 LCH 87 74 87 73 / 70 60 80 40 LFT 86 74 88 73 / 80 50 70 20 BPT 90 74 89 74 / 50 50 70 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...11