Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
464 FXUS64 KLCH 300532 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1232 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... -Low level southerly flow has become reestablished, causing moisture to increase. This will lead to more humid conditions along with a rise in temperatures that are already above seasonal norms. -The next chance for a wetting rain can be expected late Wednesday or early Thursday as the upper ridge breaks down and an upper disturbance moves into what will be a moisture rich region. -Rain chances will be further enhanced into the weekend as a frontal boundary moves across the North Gulf States. A multiday heavy rainfall threat will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Aloft, a steadily weakening ridge is positioned over the western Gulf Coast. This will continue to shift away from the region, along with the drier air that was previously in place. At the surface, a broader ridge near the Great Lakes extends into the southern MS River Valley. This too will shift eastward, with a trough moving in and creating a somewhat tighter pressure gradient, allowing southerly flow to become reestablished. Even with the drier layer gradually moistening, chances for showers will remain isolated at best today. Starting tomorrow and continuing through the rest of the weekend, we will see a pattern shift, with scattered to numerous showers and storms potentially leading to a multiday heavy rainfall threat across the region. A cutoff upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to move due east into the Southern to Central Plains before weakening and opening up. This system will be fueled by two main sources of moisture. First, the remnants of Hurricane Polo, currently inland over northern Mexico and moving eastward into TX. Second, tropical moisture from the Gulf that will be pulled northward as the pressure gradient tightens and southerly flow becomes reestablished. PWATs from Friday through the weekend will be well above the 90th percentile, approaching the daily maximum Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, a cold front is forecast to progress through the area during this timeframe. Showers and storms could continue behind this initial frontal passage, with a secondary front forecast to push through sometime early to mid next week. Model guidance is starting to come into better agreement regarding the progression of the upper disturbance, but remains murky regarding the fronts afterward. This will play a significant role in the potential for flooding across our area and the timing of the end of this multiday rainfall event. WPC has already introduced Marginal to Slight Risks for excessive rainfall across portions of the CWA from Thursday through Saturday; however, the evolution of this system could lead to an increase in threat levels, along with the threat continuing into early next week. Outside of general flooding from the sky, we could also be looking at the possibility of minor coastal flooding across our coastal SETX counties and SWLA parishes. With tides still forecast below 1.5 MHHW, no advisory has been issued, but this will be monitored over the next few days. Temperatures will continue to be well above average today into midweek. With dewpoints rising, heat indices could reach the triple digits in some locations. After midweek, afternoon high temperatures could drop closer to climatological normals as a result of increased cloud cover and rainfall. Overnight lows will remain above normal until after the secondary frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to persist for the TAF sites this cycle. With the return of moisture, we could see some areas of patchy fog early tomorrow morning, especially at sites where winds become more relaxed; however, whatever forms should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, this is primarily a wind forecast. Winds have already relaxed some this evening but will pick up once again tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 An increase in winds over the waters led to the issuance of an Exercise Caution statement. As the cutoff low moves closer to the coast, winds will increase, making a Small Craft Advisory increasingly likely. From late Thursday through the weekend, widespread rain and storms will impact coastal waters, reducing visibility and causing locally higher winds and waves. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 High pressure will keep conditions dry today; however, rain chances will increase on Thursday and remain elevated throughout the weekend. Widespread wetting rain is expected and will help reduce fire danger as we move into October. However, with a majority of this rainfall expected later in the week, it is likely that we will see a drop in drought categories across portions of the area with the next drought update. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...87