Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
044 FXUS64 KLCH 011716 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon south of the I-10 corridor associated with an offshore frontal boundary. - Precipitation chances taper through the week as a series of weak frontal boundaries push through the region. - Temperatures will remain near climatological normals, but slightly lower dewpoints in the wake of the frontal passages will make conditions more tolerable. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A quasistationary frontal boundary continues to sit over the northern gulf this afternoon providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters. A few of these storms may develop inland this afternoon, but nearly all CAMS guidance keeps convection confined to along or south of the I- 10 corridor. Dewpoints have dropped into the upper 60s to near 70 as drier air aloft mixes down to the surface. This will make the afternoon highs near 90s a bit more bearable for the first day of meteorological autumn (a technical delineation that carries little meaningful weight in this part of the world in early September). A bit of lingering moisture Tuesday may prove to be enough for a few, diurnally driven, storms to develop Tuesday afternoon, but this isn`t expected to amount to much. Another weak, but dry frontal boundary will push through the region Wednesday reinforcing the upper 60s dewpoints although with plenty of sunshine in it`s wake, afternoon highs will climb back into the low to mid 90s Thursday. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A broad upper level trof extending across much of the central and eastern U.S. along with a very weak surface gradient will maintain uniform and relatively benign conditions across the region Friday and Saturday with guidance hinting at another frontal passage late next weekend. While this may offer dramatically cooler temperatures to the midwest and parts of the northeast, the airmass will be significantly modified by the time it reaches the gulf coast with minimal change to daily temperatures and only a modest reduction in humidity to continue into early next week. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A quasistationary frontal boundary sitting over the northern gulf will continue to provide a focus for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Impact probabilities are highest at BPT and LCH. Inland storms should dissipate by around sunset although they will likely continue overnight over the coastal waters. Away from storms, VFR conditions along with light and variable winds will prevail through the period. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A stationary front draped along the coast will be the focus for showers and storms through Wednesday as it slowly meanders south through the coastal waters. East to northeast winds will prevail during that time before turning west to northwest Wed through Fri as storms taper off. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the coastal counties and parishes of Southeast Texas and western Louisiana in response to a frontal boundary sitting off the coast. Easterly winds will prevail through Tuesday night with slightly drier air dropping minimum RH values to around 50 percent during the afternoon. A weak, reinforcing, frontal boundary will push through the region Wednesday turning winds west to northwesterly and dropping minimum RH values to around 40 percent Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 90 68 90 / 10 30 10 20 LCH 72 90 72 90 / 10 30 10 20 LFT 72 90 71 90 / 10 20 10 20 BPT 72 90 72 91 / 20 30 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...66