014
FXUS64 KLCH 290524
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1224 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with warm afternoons and cool nights will
  continue through Thursday.

- Wildfire risk will remain elevated each afternoon through
  Thursday, due to continuing drought conditions and afternoon
  relative humidity dropping to 30-60%.

- Rain chances return to the forecast late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A quiet and seasonal night is ongoing across the forecast area as
surface high pressure continues to maintain control across much of
the eastern CONUS, providing light winds and temps in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Aloft, elongated ridging continues to provide a
west to west-southwest flow above 500mb, advecting high clouds and
a bit of moisture into the region. 00Z LCH sounding shows a PWAT
of 1.31", which is just below to 75th percentile for today
however, an influx of dry air is expected later today, providing
a short lived drying trend before another surge of moisture
arrives tomorrow.

Today, low level easterly flow should advect a drier, continental
airmass into the region briefly shunting the moisture overhead off
to the west and allowing PWATs to dip below 1" through this
afternoon. This will bring about a warm but rather pleasant
afternoon/evening across much of the region with dewpoints dropping
into the 50s while highs top out in the low to mid 80s.
Unfortunately, this will be brief as moisture returns quickly and in
earnest tomorrow and remaining elevated into early next week.

Tomorrow into Saturday, a couple of features simultaneously bring a
surge of moisture into the region, merging overhead and increasing
rain chances as we head into Halloween weekend. First, an upper
level shortwave carrying the remnants of TD Vance in the Pacific (or
rather the moisture associated with TD Vance) will move into the
Southern Plains late tomorrow into early Saturday. At the same time,
a surge of moisture will move out of the southeastern Gulf from a
decaying low pressure system near south FL and overspread the
northern Gulf Coast. These two moisture rich atmospheres will mesh
overhead from tomorrow afternoon into Saturday morning, with
guidance depicting PWATs increasing to around ~1.70" (90th
percentile is 1.69") by 12Z Saturday and even further through the
daytime hours on Saturday. While this will unfortunately bring
about humid conditions through the weekend, it will also finally
bring some much needed rain chances back to the forecast. We could
see some very isolated shower activity through late Friday into
early Saturday however, the better chance of rain will come
through midday into the evening hours of Saturday with a few
showers possibly lingering into Saturday night mainly for CENLA.
Unfortunately guidance continues to come down on rainfall amounts,
with most of the region likely seeing less than 0.25" of rain,
apart from an isolated location or two. While this won`t be enough
to put any dent in the ongoing severe drought, it will help
tamper down fire risk for a while.

While rain chances taper off by early Sunday, this influx of
moisture will hang around until the passage of a cold front late
Tuesday. Until then, warm and humid conditions can be expected with
daytime highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s (5-10 degrees above seasonal norms). With moisture
lingering, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and dewpoints in the
60s as well. Finally, Tuesday`s front does look to bring us a more
substantial chance for rainfall followed by a welcomed period of dry
and cool conditions Wed through the end of the week. In addition,
there also looks to be an accompanied threat for some strong to
severe storms with frontal passage. Still a bit early to iron out
details, but definitely something to watch over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Scattered high clouds will continue to stream across the region
through the period, thinning out a bit by the midday as drier air
starts to work its way into the region. Otherwise, winds remain
light and mainly out of the east to southeast. Only deviation from
VFR will be the small chance for some fog at LCH as we approach
sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A light to moderate easterly flow continues into early next week,
with occasional gusts to 15-20 kts possible Friday into the weekend
as the pressure gradient briefly tightens. Small craft should
continue to exercise caution through this period, especially across
the outer coastal waters. Friday afternoon/evening, rain chances
return and remain elevated through Saturday as a surge of moisture
overspreads the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Dry conditions continue across the area, with afternoon minimum RH
expected to be in the 30-45 percent range again today while winds
remain light from the east. Fuels remain very dry due to ongoing
drought, but higher humidity and cooler temperatures the past few
days has allowed ERC values to fall to 70th-80th percentile, which
should help limit fire danger somewhat compared to much of the past
few weeks. RH values will start increasing again Friday as a surge
of moisture arrives, bringing with it a return of rain chances to
the area late Friday through Saturday.


&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...17