797
FXUS64 KLCH 140001
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
701 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood watch has been posted for lower Southeast TX and
  South Central LA into Saturday evening where periods of training
  precipitation over saturated soils are likely to occur

- A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlined across
  across the forecast area

- High rain chances will persist into this weekend; slightly lower
  chances early to mid next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Active weather continues, with significant flash flooding
impacting Acadiana and southwest Louisiana. Rain gauges in
Lafayette, St. Martin, and Iberia Parish recorded rainfall amounts
above 7 inches, with a maximum report of 8.2 inches near
Broussard. Satellite and radar continue to show widespread,
scattered, slow-moving storms, with the 50 dBZ located below the
freezing level. These low echo centroid cells are proficient
rainmakers, with radar-estimated rain rates between 1 and 3 inches
per hour.

In the upper levels, a trough is located across central Texas and
will slowly lift northward over the weekend. Impacts from the
trough will continue to be felt through the weekend and into the
start of next week, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
expected each day. Heavy rainfall remains a concern on Saturday,
with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook
(ERO) across the region. Moisture and instability remain high,
with expected PWAT values above 1.8 inches over the next several
days. To put that number into context, the climatological 75th
percentile is 1.78 inches. CAPE values are also high, ranging from
1,000 to 1,500 J/kg, with a "skinny CAPE" profilean indicator
that can support high rain rates in convection. As stated in the
previous AFD, upshear Corfidi vectors remain low further
supporting the Flash flood threat. With already soaked ground
conditions, the flash flood threat will remain elevated through
the weekend. Along the I-10 corridor, from Beaumont to Lafayette,
multiple models show expected rainfall amounts between 1 and 3
inches over the next 24 hours. The `reasonable worst-case`
scenario, represented by the 90th percentile, suggests widespread
totals of 3 to 5 inches of rain.

By Sunday, the trough will exit our area, but widespread showers
and thunderstorms will persist, shifting toward conditions more
favorable for airmass convection. Temperatures will remain near
seasonal norms, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each
afternoon. Persistent onshore flow will keep dew point values
stuck in the mid to upper 70s through the start of next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The unsettled pattern will continue into next week, with PoPs
remaining in the forecast each afternoon for the rest of the week.
At the surface, high pressure in the Atlantic will continue
pushing warm, moist air across the region. Aloft, a ridge will be
situated in the desert southwest far enough away to stall the
upper-level pattern but not influence our weather. A series of
troughs will squeeze past the ridge, impacting our area, with
widespread rain and flooding being the primary concerns. River
flooding could also begin to affect the region as conditions
worsen.

Near the end of the work week, the previously mentioned ridge will
begin rebuilding over the central U.S., which could limit
convection depending on its exact position.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Convection has largely diminished with only BPT experiencing
vicinity storms. These should continue diminishing with sundown.
Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight but conditions should
remain clear for the most part. A few lower clouds will be
possiblethrough sunrise.

Boundary will persist over the region allowing for another round
of convection from 18 to 00Z Saturday.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern
over the weekend and into next week. Light to moderate onshore
flow will continue through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  91  73  92 /  20  60  20  60
LCH  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  10  60
LFT  75  90  75  90 /  30  60  10  70
BPT  75  90  76  90 /  10  50  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ033-044-045-055-073-
     074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-516-
     615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11