Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
552 FXUS64 KLCH 010528 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances gradually taper down through the next couple of days as a stalled boundary near the coast moves off to the south and drier air filters in behind it - Near normal temperatures and slightly drier air are expected through the mid/later half of the week as a couple of weak fronts move across the area && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A quasistationary boundary persists over the northern Gulf, maintaining a deep moist airmass across the Gulf Coast states. This pattern will support another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with the highest PoPs remaining over SETX and south of the I-10 corridor. Persistent rainfall over the past several days has led to high soil moisture, particularly in coastal SETX, where a Marginal Risk for flash flooding has been outlined. Isolated heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding not only in SETX, but also along the coast. As the frontal boundary and associated moist airmass are pushed southward into the Gulf through the early to mid work week, rain chances will steadily decrease. However, a series of weak frontal boundaries will track through the region, contributing to scattered PoPs on Tuesday into early Wednesday and in the long term. The widespread cloud cover and precip will keep daytime MaxTs a few degrees below climatological normals, while overnight MinTs will remain slightly elevated. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The eastern CONUS will remain under the influence of an upper level trough for the majority of the long term period. This synoptic feature will aid in pushing a few more weak frontal boundaries through the area toward the end of the week and during the weekend. The first of these boundaries will be relatively dry, with minimal associated PoPs. By the weekend, the upper level trough is expected to shift northward, allowing for moisture pooling across the Southern Plains to the East Coast. This will lead to a return of isolated PoPs, with most of the convective activity being diurnally driven. Despite the passage of these weak fronts, temperatures will generally be at or slightly above climatological normals, with the exception of slightly cooler overnight lows in inland areas. The influx of drier air behind the fronts will lead to a reduction in dew points, providing a tiny bit of relief from the mugginess. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Showers and isolated storms are still lingering in the Gulf, with no impacts to inland terminals expected. Tonight we could see another round of patchy fog, again with little if any impacts. Tomorrow the chances for showers and storms will be more limited, however it will not be out of the realm of possibility for terminals close to the coast. With most of it being diurnally driven, we can expect quiet conditions to resume in the evening hours tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A stationary front draped along the coast will be the focus for showers and storms through the next few days as it slowly meanders south through the coastal waters. Winds will be mainly E to NE through the next couple of days, before becoming more W to NW Wed through Fri. Rain chances taper off Wed, with dry conditions expected through the second half of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the next couple of days, particularly across SETX and the coastal areas, in response to a slowly advancing frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Wind will be mainly out of the east through the next couple of days, before gradually turning more W to NW by early Wednesday. A shot of slightly drier air will overspread the area through Wed, bringing rain chances to near zero for the second half of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 69 90 68 / 10 10 30 10 LCH 89 72 90 72 / 40 30 40 10 LFT 89 72 90 71 / 20 10 30 10 BPT 89 72 90 72 / 50 30 30 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...87