Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
664 FXUS64 KLCH 021357 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 857 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - An advancing frontal boundary along with a very moist airmass overhead will work together to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms Today through tonight. - Due to very high moisture there will be a potential for excessive rainfall and a Marginal Flash Flood risk through tonight. - The shower activity and cloud cover should continue to keep the heat in check into Saturday, with lower humidity noted on Sunday into Monday. Therefore, no heat advisories planned at this time through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 856 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Based on radar, increases pops this morning for portions of southeast Texas and adjusted temperatures. The remainder of the forecast is unchanged. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Late night surface analysis shows a weak frontal boundary draped across the I-20 corridor, with associated convection ongoing just north of the CWA. For the most part this convection should stay north of the CWA boundary (except for parts of far inland SE TX) while gradually weakening as we head towards sunrise. At the same time, the boundary should slowly sag south, making its way into CENLA around sunrise and then eventually near the I-10 corridor by the later half of today. For the most part the presence of this boundary will be hardly noticeable, as dewpoints remain in the mid/upper 70s today and highs top out in the lower 90s this afternoon. However, the front will bring an increased chance of rain today as it interacts with the very moist airmass overhead. Scattered convection will be possible through the morning hours, but the best chance of rain should come through the mid afternoon into the early evening hours as daytime heating, ample moisture, and the boundary work together. As a result, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place area-wide today. Tonight, the boundary continues its slow descent southward, while a weak mid/upper level trough takes shape across the TN River Valley, giving it a slight push towards the coast. As this occurs, a touch of slightly drier air is expected to filter down into CENLA overnight, with dewpoints dipping down into the upper 60s around sunrise. Tomorrow, the boundary will meander near the coast providing some support for more afternoon showers and storms however, overall chances look much less than today as moisture decreases slightly. The best chance for rain tomorrow will likely set up south of I-10 to the coast where better moisture will reside, with near zero chances across interior SE TX/CENLA. Moving into the work week, lower rain chances and slightly lower dewpoints will continue for a bit longer as the boundary meanders near the coast and the mid/upper trough lingers across the mid MS River Valley. Still could see some isolated afternoon convection, but overall chances are rather low. Temperature wise, Mon morning lows could fall into the upper 60s across CENLA, with low to mid 70s elsewhere, while highs warm into the lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 The remainder of the work week brings a return to a more typical summertime pattern as the boundary becomes washed out and moisture increases once again. However, it doesn`t look like we will see a huge surge of tropical-like moisture, so a more typical coverage of afternoon storms with seasonal temps can be expected. Upper level ridging slowly builds across the SWrn CONUS through the work week, gradually tampering down rain chances for the western edge of the CWA, while higher rain chances exist across Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin. Highs top out in the low to mid 90s each day, while lows fall into mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 VFR conditions expected to remain predominate across all TAF sites through most of the remaining morning hours. A frontal boundary will interact with humid airmass in place to develop cumulus through late morning and organize into scattered storms through the afternoon. Conditions are most favorable to have reductions during afternoon hours, however, periods of deteriorating weather expected to be intermittent. 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 A surface boundary will approach the coastal waters from the north today then stall and washout through early next week. Mainly a light west to northwest flow is expected out ahead of the frontal boundary with low seas. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day today through the work week, and winds and seas will be higher near any storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 A very moist air mass and a surface frontal boundary will combine to bring high humidity and a decent chance for rain today into tonight. Slightly drier air will try to work into the forecast area on Sunday, reducing rain chances and humidity, especially for upper southeast Texas and central Louisiana. Moisture gradually returns Tues through the later half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 70 93 69 / 60 30 10 0 LCH 92 74 92 73 / 70 60 40 10 LFT 91 74 91 73 / 70 40 40 10 BPT 92 73 92 74 / 70 60 50 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...30