Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
540 FXUS64 KLCH 130555 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1155 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures over the period will become well above normal with little to no rain chances until this weekend into early next work week. - Rain returns early next week with increasing chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Upper level ridging is beginning to set in overnight bringing about clear and calm conditions. With moisture pooling into the region and radiational cooling, areas of patchy fog are expected to develop for most of the area through morning. Fog production should be limited as winds in the upper boundary layer are still somewhat elevated (as seen by movement of cloud layer on satellite imagery.) However, if these boundary layer winds are able to diminish, there could be patchy to isolated areas of dense fog intermixed. At this time, a Dense Fog Advisory does not appear necessary, but one may come if that changes. Otherwise, a very warm and mostly clear Thursday is on tap. Expect much of the same over the short term period. Moisture moving in, height rises beneath high pressure leading to temps well above average in the upper 70s to around 80 each day and morning chances of fog. 11 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Pattern shift starts to take place on Sunday as high pressure ridge begins moving off to the east and as the first of several upper lows arrive to the Rocky Mountain corridor. Sunday should largely remain dry with high pressure influence. By Monday, the first wave should be moving into the central Plains and moving north, shunted northward by remaining high pressure influence. Falling heights combined with area moisture should be enough to allow for scattered rain chances Monday. High pressure strengthens over Florida/Georgia and radiates out into the northwest Gulf from Tuesday into the late part of the week. This feature will act to deflect the parade of waves to the north of the CWA for the most part. Latest guidance has come in with lower rainfall totals, likely owing to this feature. Forecast guidance does bring a plume of moisture into the heart of the forecast area towards the middle of the week which should assist with an increase of storm coverage and rainfall efficiency with the next robust wave passage on Thursday. 11 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Clear calm conditions are ongoing at this hour. Upper air analysis indicates mid level ridging is developing which is keeping conditions clear and causing winds to be mostly calm. Fog has been slow to develop, being mostly owed to elevated winds overtop the boundary layer. These winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated overnight which will limit fog development. Areas of fog are expected, but dense fog is unlikely to impact any terminals. Any impacts to VIS will quickly dissipate with sunrise. High pressure moves overhead on Thursday with warm temps, fair-weather cumulus and breezy south winds to prevail. 11 && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Ridging will be in control through the weekend with onshore winds and low seas expected. The upper level pattern becomes active starting next Monday when a series of waves are expected to move across northern Gulf states. This will likely bring about periods of disturbed weather and elevated winds and seas next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Warm, humid conditions are expected underneath a developing high pressure ridge from now until the first part of next week. Expect areas of patchy fog each overnight period followed by fair weather clouds and breezy onshore winds during daytime hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 53 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 60 78 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 57 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 60 80 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11