048
FXUS64 KLCH 141929
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
229 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood watch remains in effect for lower Southeast TX and
  South Central LA until 7PM tonight where periods of training
  precipitation over well saturated soils are likely to occur

- A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlined across
  across the forecast area through tonight.

- High rain chances will persist into this weekend; slightly lower
  chances early to mid next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The ongoing unstable pattern persists, with an upper-level trough
situated over the central Gulf Coast. At the surface, high
pressure in the Atlantic extends ridging across the Gulf,
continuing to push a warm, moist air mass into the region. Tonight
and into Sunday, the upper-level trough will shift southward and
deepen; however, its influence on our area will be minimal. With
reduced upper-level support, the risk of flash flooding and severe
weather will be limited. But with CAPE values remaining in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range thunderstorms will be possible with some
stronger thunderstorms as a possibility. Otherwise the weather
will begin to look like a typical summertime conditions will
prevail, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected to
continue through the weekend and into next week.

Temperatures will remain close to seasonal averages, hovering
around 90 degrees, accompanied by high humidity. Heat index values
are beginning to rise, with apparent temperatures projected to
reach the triple digits on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The remainder of the forecast resembles the start, with the
existing synoptic setup persisting through midweek. Daily rainfall
probabilities will remain in the 5060% range, with air mass
showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon. By midweek,
the pattern will begin to shift as the trough finally exits the
region. Meanwhile, ridging in the Gulf will continue to support
warm air advection, with dew points holding steady in the mid-to-
upper 70s. As ridging builds overhead, rain chances will gradually
decrease but will still remain in the 4050% range.

Heat will become an increasing concern, with temperatures reaching
the low to mid 90s when combined with dew points in the mid 70s we
will start to see heat index values rising close to 105F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A line of thunderstorms is located near AEX and is morning north.
To the south scattered showers and thunderstorms are located
between LCH and LFT/ARA. Near convection conditions are IFR /
LIFR. Outside of convection lower CIGs are leading to MVFR
conditions with intermittent VFR periods. Overnight conditions
will continue to improve as convection fades but we could see
patchy fog form due to weak winds and saturated grounds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the next several
days. Combined seas are between 1 and 3 feet are will be steady
for the next several days. The main concern will be local impacts
from showers and thunderstorms, primary in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  90  72  90 /  30  70  20  70
LCH  76  90  76  89 /  20  70  30  80
LFT  74  89  74  88 /  20  80  30  90
BPT  75  89  75  88 /  20  60  20  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-261-262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14