Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
018 FXUS64 KLCH 282356 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 656 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Marginal to Slight ERO is in place for at least part of the area today through Sunday - Much higher rain chances expected tomorrow and Saturday as significant moisture surges into the region ahead of another frontal boundary - Below normal temperatures expected early next week as another frontal boundary pushes through the region && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Thursday afternoon surface analysis shows a warm front draped across the Ark-La-Tex into the Gulf. Aloft, troughing is over the eastern CONUS while weak ridging is over the Souther Plains/north Mexico, with the forecast area somewhat nestled between these two features. Area radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms streaming inland from the Gulf across the southern half of the CWA this morning, while temperature range from the mid to upper 80s. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon hours behind the boundary, while temperatures will top out in the lower 90s. Overnight into Friday, a surge of moisture will spread across the Ark-La-Miss from the north, with PWATs increasing to above the 90th percentile. As moisture increases, CAMs show a large swath of convection moving southward out of Arkansas overnight through tomorrow. Overnight, the better chance for rain will be more to our north and east however, some of this could clip parts of CENLA. Tomorrow, widespread convection is expected beginning in the morning for CENLA and spreading south through the midday/afternoon hours. WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for parts of the CWA through the overnight period, to account for this first round of convection, while tomorrow CENLA is outlined in a Slight Risk while the remainder of the region is included in the Marginal Risk. While this convection should be moving southward at a decent pace, high rainfall rates are likely which could lead to localized flash flooding issues. In addition, SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk for severe weather across most of the CWA for the potential for damaging wind gusts associated with this southward moving convection. Moving into Saturday, another area-wide Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place, as moisture remains very elevated and stalled boundary lingers around the region providing focus for convection. On the bright side, better rain chances and more cloud cover will result in below average temperatures, with highs only expected to reach the mid to upper 80s Sat afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Sunday brings pretty much a repeat of Saturday, as significant moisture and a stationary boundary continue to linger across the northern Gulf Coast for a bit longer. Below average temperatures and mostly cloudy skies are again expected, along with another areawide Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. By the later part of Sun into Mon, there is some indication we may begin to dry out as the stalled boundary gets a push south and moves out into the south-central Gulf. While the GFS still wants to keep moisture present into the early part of the week, the Euro and Canadian are in agreement with a drier pattern by Monday. With an offshore flow expected to develop at the surface, and a NWrly flow developing aloft, I think a trend towards dry conditions is more likely. By the mid-week, a strengthening trough over the eastern CONUS will reinforce a dry and slightly cooler pattern through the end of the forecast period. While it doesn`t look significantly cooler, it does look like we will see some reprieve from typical early Sept heat, with below average temps expected throughout the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A broken line of thunderstorms across north Louisiana associated with a weak frontal boundary will continue to work south through the evening with storms impacting AEX after 03Z this evening. These storms will gradually weaken late tonight into early Friday morning, but will redevelop by mid to late morning impacting all area terminals Friday afternoon and evening. Away from storms, winds will be light and variable through the period. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Light onshore winds and low seas will prevail into early Saturday. In addition, scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible. A slowly advancing front slides south through Saturday morning which should bring about widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will turn offshore late Saturday or Sunday through the middle of next week as the frontal boundary moves off the coast and into the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Humidity will increase significantly Friday through Sunday as moisture surges ahead of another frontal boundary yielding widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of the weekend. The front will push through the area Sunday turning light winds out of the north Sunday through mid next week pulling some slightly drier air into the region Monday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 85 69 85 / 50 80 60 70 LCH 77 89 74 88 / 20 60 50 80 LFT 75 89 73 88 / 20 70 50 80 BPT 77 90 75 89 / 20 40 40 80 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...66