996
FXUS64 KLCH 150040
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
740 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood watch remains in effect for lower Southeast TX and
  South Central LA until 7PM tonight where periods of training
  precipitation over well saturated soils are likely to occur

- A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlined across
  across the forecast area through tonight.

- High rain chances will persist into this weekend; slightly lower
  chances early to mid next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The ongoing unstable pattern persists, with an upper-level trough
situated over the central Gulf Coast. At the surface, high
pressure in the Atlantic extends ridging across the Gulf,
continuing to push a warm, moist air mass into the region. Tonight
and into Sunday, the upper-level trough will shift southward and
deepen; however, its influence on our area will be minimal. With
reduced upper-level support, the risk of flash flooding and severe
weather will be limited. But with CAPE values remaining in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range thunderstorms will be possible with some
stronger thunderstorms as a possibility. Otherwise the weather
will begin to look like a typical summertime conditions will
prevail, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected to
continue through the weekend and into next week.

Temperatures will remain close to seasonal averages, hovering
around 90 degrees, accompanied by high humidity. Heat index values
are beginning to rise, with apparent temperatures projected to
reach the triple digits on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The remainder of the forecast resembles the start, with the
existing synoptic setup persisting through midweek. Daily rainfall
probabilities will remain in the 5060% range, with air mass
showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon. By midweek,
the pattern will begin to shift as the trough finally exits the
region. Meanwhile, ridging in the Gulf will continue to support
warm air advection, with dew points holding steady in the mid-to-
upper 70s. As ridging builds overhead, rain chances will gradually
decrease but will still remain in the 4050% range.

Heat will become an increasing concern, with temperatures reaching
the low to mid 90s when combined with dew points in the mid 70s we
will start to see heat index values rising close to 105F.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Conditions are generally quiet with only some convection firing
and moving inland near LFT and ARA. The 00z sounding indicates
the environment is rather unstable, but with little forcing
mechanism in place, the overnight airmass should remain somewhat
quiet.

Some patchy fog will likely develop into the early morning hours.
Expect southwesterly winds to prevail with low, MVFR ceilings and
daytime convection.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the next several
days. Combined seas are between 1 and 3 feet are will be steady
for the next several days. The main concern will be local impacts
from showers and thunderstorms, primary in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  89  72  90 /  20  80  20  70
LCH  75  88  76  89 /  30  70  20  70
LFT  74  88  74  88 /  30  80  20  80
BPT  75  88  75  89 /  30  60  20  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11