Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
548 FXUS64 KLCH 110010 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 710 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak disturbance will move across the forecast area today with a probability of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. - Lower rain chances are expected from the middle into the upcoming weekend along with an increase in heat risk as an upper level high pressure ridge builds across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 The large scale upper-level weather pattern across the CONUS remains dominated by subtropical ridging over the Desert Southwest and over Florida, with our region located in a weakness in between. Surface ridging over the Southeast US is leading to light but moisture-rich southerly flow over our CWA. A weak surface feature pushing into the area has increased moisture even further, with PWAT values analyzed at 2.0 to 2.2 inches (around 90th percentile for early to mid August). The surface wave and increased moisture has resulted in an early start to convection this morning, with showers and thunderstorms expected to spread inland during the afternoon. The environment will be very unstable (MUCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg) with warm cloud layer depths greater than 12-13kft. As a result, heavy rainfall could be a concern, and WPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall for our area. A few instances of nuisance flooding and/or ponding of water are possible should high rainfall rates occur over urban and/or poorly drained areas. Also cannot rule out some gusty winds with storms this afternoon given the instability, anomalous moisture, and 0-3km maximum theta-E differences near 25K, though DCAPE values around 600-700 J/kg should tend to limit this threat. CAMs depict a downward trend in convection by late afternoon as storms work over the airmass, with any lingering showers dissipating by sunset. Outside of convection, expect highs in the low to mid 90s, with humidity resulting in heat index values around 100-104. The southeastern upper-level ridge will begin to strengthen and expand westward starting tomorrow, which will increase the large- scale subsidence and also allow some drier continental air to work its way into the region. These factors will work together to decrease coverage and intensity of afternoon convection. Tuesday should see some showers/storms with PWAT still around 1.8 inches, but coverage will be much more isolated and mainly focused along the seabreeze near the coast. An isolated shower or two might manage to develop Wednesday, but the vast majority of areas will stay dry. The ridge will continue to build through the latter half of the week into next weekend. LREF mean 500mb heights reach 598 dam by Friday (climatological 99th percentile) with the ridge centered over northern Louisiana. This will lead to high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the CWA with rain chances essentially zero. Heat advisories may become necessary for some areas by the end of the week depending on the evolution of low-level moisture. 64/Silas && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 708 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 benign conditions ongoing as convection has cleared the area. Patchy ground fog will be possible, otherwise VFR conditions to persist. && .MARINE... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the Southeast CONUS is resulting in generally light (5-12 kt) southerly winds, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. An upper level ridge building into the area will bring a decrease in shower activity, with rain chances near zero from Wednesday onward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 A very moist airmass is in place over the CWA with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through this afternoon. An expanding upper-level high pressure ridge will result in a warming trend and a decrease in daily shower coverage through the first half of the week, with rain chances essentially zero from Wednesday onward. The higher temperatures will allow afternoon minimum RH values to drop to the 40-60 percent range, but winds less than 5-10 kt should preclude any significant fire weather conditions. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64 AVIATION...87