Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
315 FXUS64 KLCH 020520 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm and humid conditions with patchy dense fog can be expected into Monday. - An upper level low will move a cold front across late Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms likely. There will be a potential for some strong storms and locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler and dry weather can be expected behind the front starting on Wednesday through the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Upper-level riding will help moderate our weather to start the week. To our west, a robust shortwave trough is moving across the Rockies. As this system moves across the northern Great Plains, our winds will increase and remain from the south further boosting our already moist environment. PWAT values will increase, approaching 1.9 inches, which is well above the 90th percentile. The WPC has highlighted our area for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding on Tuesday. Along with the rain threat, this will be the first severe weather threat of the fall season. With that in mind, the setup for Tuesday is still uncertain, but the best environment for strong storms looks to be north of central Louisiana. Bulk wind shear (0-6 km) values look to be between 25 and 35 knots. This is high enough to support storm organization with a multicellular line or QLCS look to the storms. The main limiting factor appears to be weak CAPE with low mid-level lapse rates. MUCAPE is rather modest from 1500 to 1800 J/kg with lapse rates between 4 to 6. Forecast soundings also show a "skinny" CAPE profile which would support more of a heavy rain threat than severe threat. With this forecast package the main severe threat, looks to be damaging winds,and the SPC has placed the northern half of the CWA under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Behind the front, weak cold air advection will cause our temperatures to slowly drop with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s through Thursday before temperatures start to drop as we go into the weekend. With the CAA, dry air will also move into the region dropping dew points into the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A low stratus deck will keep conditions MVFR to IFR for the night. Patchy fog will lead to visibility restrictions with occasional LIFR impacts near sunrise. After 13Z conditions will improve as the fog burns away the cloud deck rises to VFR levels. && .MARINE... Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Winds will start to increase on Monday as low pressure develops in the Great Plains. During this time winds will be southernly with waves between 2 and 3 feet. On Tuesday a cold front will move across the region brining heavy downpours and thunderstorms. Behind the front winds will be from the north-northwest around 20 knots. Waves will increase by a foot or two during this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Elevated RH values will limit fire danger as minRH values will be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday. A frontal passage on Tuesday will bring more rain with the forecast calling for widespread 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain. Behind the front north to northwest winds will bring cooler and drier air with minRH values dropping between 30 and 40% for the second half of the week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...14