Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
628 FXUS64 KLCH 291737 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1237 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated rain chances continue through tomorrow as significant moisture surges into the region ahead of another frontal boundary - These storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to nuisance street flooding. - Below normal temperatures expected through much of next week as a series of weak frontal boundaries pushes through the region and reinforce a drier/cooler atmosphere. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 A cloudy and rainy start to the holiday weekend has unfolded across SE TX and most of LA this morning, with widespread rainfall ongoing along/near a stalled boundary that is currently situated across CENLA. At the moment most of this is activity just light to moderate rainfall, with very little lightning activity noted. This activity should continue to work its way south/southeastward through the afternoon, and while some thunderstorms are possible the overcast cloud deck blanketing most of the CWA should largely limit significant convection. The main exception to this could be lower SE TX where breaks in the clouds are noted and temperatures have been able to warm into the upper 80s (as opposed to mid 70s-mid 80s elsewhere). Never the less, SPC continues to hold a Marginal Risk for severe weather over the majority of our CWA, for the possibility of damaging wind gusts. However, the main concern through the afternoon will be the potential for localized flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in place across the entire CWA. Moving into the weekend, a mid/upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will gradually amplify, eventually pushing the stalled boundary overhead out into the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely both Sat and Sun however, coverage should be less than today. Still, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in affect area-wide both days, as significant atmospheric moisture overhead will help some of these storms produce locally elevated rainfall rates. Apart from convection, partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures are expected. Highs should top out in the mid 80s to near 90, while overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Moving into the long term, we gradually begin to dry out as the upper level trough continues to amplify overhead and eventually sends another front through the area around the Tues/Wed time frame. Until then, low end rain chances continue however, coverage should be scattered at best. Drier air works its way into the region slowly on Tues/Wed and then quicker by Wed night/Thurs morning, with NBM showing dewpoints falling into the low to mid 60s area-wide around sunrise Thurs. Drier air should continue to filter into the area through the later half of the week as yet another, likely more significant, front moves through around Thurs night. Temperature wise, highs will generally warm into the mid 80s to near 90 each day, while overnight lows gradually fall throughout the period, from the mid 60s/low 70s Mon night to the low 60s/upper 60s by the end of the week. Overall, looking like a very pleasant start to Sept is on the way once we get past this wet period this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Scattered showers will continue across the region through the afternoon hours, tapering off around sunset. CIGs will waffle between VFR and MVFR through the afternoon as well, while winds will remain light and mainly from the west. Tonight, winds calm and skies remain OVC but VFR. Another round of showers is expected to develop between 06 and 12Z, occasionally affecting some of the terminals prior to sunrise. Post sunrise, convection may become a bit more scattered and linger through the afternoon. Winds turn more northerly tomorrow, while skies should largely maintain VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Scattered showers and storms ongoing near the coast should continue to advance through the coastal waters today ahead of a slowly southward advancing frontal boundary. This front will slide toward the coast Saturday morning which should bring about widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will turn offshore from Saturday afternoon through the middle of next week as the frontal boundary moves off the coast and into the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Humidity will increase significantly today through Sunday as moisture surges ahead of a frontal boundary yielding scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of the weekend. The front will push through the area Saturday afternoon turning light winds out of the north through mid next week pulling some slightly drier air into the region Monday and Tuesday. A reinforcing frontal boundary will move through the region Wednesday maintaining the drier air through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 85 68 87 / 40 30 10 20 LCH 73 88 73 87 / 60 60 20 40 LFT 73 88 73 87 / 50 60 10 30 BPT 75 88 74 88 / 60 70 30 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17