014
FXUS64 KLCH 120445
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1145 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level low will linger into tonight over the region with
  clouds, occasional light rain or drizzle and temperatures 5 to
  15 below normal.

- Runoff from the recent rainfall will continue to produce
  elevated hydro flows with numerous river points expected to
  remain in flood through at-least the first part of the upcoming
  week.

- High pressure building in early next week will lead to drying
  conditions and a warming trend becoming hot and humid by mid
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Persistent surface and upper low continue to spin over the Lower
Mississippi Valley and easter portions of the forecast area. This
system has brought northerly flow keeping temperatures on the cool
side for May. Also, low level moisture and clouds have been
trapped and with that some occasional light rain and drizzle.

This cyclone feature will stay around tonight before weakening and
moving off to the northeast on Monday. Therefore, expect clouds
along with patchy drizzle or light fog to hang around through the
night with cool temperatures, before clouds begin to decrease on
Monday afternoon.

Tuesday will see warmer conditions as an upper level ridge begins
to move in behind the upper low.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Looks like we go right from spring into summer in the long term.
An upper level ridge will build in from northern old Mexico to
bring drier air aloft and help preclude any significant daily
shower activity.

Meanwhile, a surface ridge will build in from the east. This will
provide southerly flow into the forecast area to bring in low
level Gulf moisture to bring about humid conditions with warmer
temperatures.

High temperatures look to be near 90 to the mid 90s with max
afternoon apparent temperatures around 100F potentially up to 105F
in some spots.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist into mid Monday morning.
Ceilings are anticipated to become VFR late morning through mid
day. Winds will be light NW tonight and become west to SW by the
end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

With low pressure inland over the Lower Mississippi Valley, the
coastal waters are seeing a light to occasional modest offshore
flow. These conditions will continue into Monday before the low
weakens and moves off to the northeast.

By Tuesday, expect southerly flow to return as high pressure
ridging in from the east will replace the low. These southerly
winds will persist through the period, with some increase on
Wednesday as a series of low pressure systems develop over the
Plains.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  78  59  89 /  10  10   0   0
LCH  56  78  65  86 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  57  77  64  86 /  10  10   0   0
BPT  56  82  66  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05