Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
304 FXUS64 KLCH 061734 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Nearby surface low will keep isolated showers in place today mainly across lower Acadiana, with dry but cloudy conditions elsewhere - A weak cold front will move into the area later in the week bringing increasingly drier conditions again by Thursday. This will reduce rain chances while daytime highs will remain near seasonal normals && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Monday morning surface analysis shows an area of low pressure over north-central LA, with a weak boundary extending from the low across south-central LA. The placement of this low has and will continue to result in somewhat of a split forecast across the CWA today. For areas along and east of I-49, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and isolated shower activity to continue into this evening. Best chance for rain will be across lower Acadiana however, could see some isolated activity crop up around St. Landry/Avoyelles through the afternoon. Across the remainder of the forecast area, partly sunny skies and dry conditions are on tap today. Temperatures should top out in the upper 80s to near 90 this afternoon, while overnight lows fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. Tomorrow, the nearby surface low meanders north before eventually dissipating, while a cold front begins to approach the region from the north by early Wednesday. Aloft, weak ridging over the east coast shifts south/southwest and amplifies a bit across the Southern Plains tomorrow through Wed. As ridging sets up overhead rain chances fall to near zero tomorrow through Wed. Lower rain chances and less cloud cover will allow highs to top out in the low 90s through the next couple of days (around 5 degrees above normal). && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Fortunately, a reprieve from the early fall heat/humidity looks to arrive as we begin the long term, with a few days of seasonal weather on tap through the second half of the week into the weekend. A cold front makes its way into the forecast area late Wed/early Thurs, and while it may initially get hung up a bit it will eventually make its way into the coastal waters by the end of the work week. While this front won`t bring any significantly cooler air, it will keep afternoon highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s, which is right on track for this time of year and a nice change from lower 90s highs/lower 70s lows we`ve been experiencing. In addition, slightly drier air will filter into the forecast area through the later half of the week, with dewpoints generally running in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Otherwise, should be a rather uneventful end to the week, with no rainfall expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Relatively quiet conditions will scattered to broken low/mid level clouds will continue into this evening. The Acadiana terminals will continue to see occasional showers through this period however, these should cause minimal issues if any. Tonight, CIGs will lift initially while winds will go calm. After midnight, CIGs begin to lower and fog will become an issues, likely at all terminals. Guidance keeps VIS around MVFR at BPT, with the remaining terminals likely falling to IFR and possibly LIFR especially through the 09-13Z time frame. Thereafter, fog burns off and ceilings lift again, with all sites returning to VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through today into tomorrow, with winds then turning more NE by early Wed. Offshore flow then continues through the later half of the week as a cold front moves through the area and reinforces this flow. As this front moves into the area, the pressure gradient overhead will tighten and winds/seas will pick up in response. Expected somewhat elevated conditions by late Wed into the early weekend, with SCA conditions likely as early as Thursday sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Light rainfall will continue to be possible across lower Acadiana today, with dry (rain free) conditions elsewhere. While little precip is expected today, a moist airmass lingers with min RH values only falling into the 60s across majority of the region this afternoon. Moisture remains elevated through Thurs with min RH values continuing to only fall into the low 50s to mid 60s through this period. Fortunately, a cool front is expected to move through the area on Thurs bringing a shot of slightly drier air that will RH values down slightly Fri through the weekend. Rain chances also remain near zero through the later half of the week into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 91 68 85 / 10 10 10 10 LCH 73 90 72 90 / 0 10 10 10 LFT 72 89 71 89 / 10 20 0 10 BPT 72 90 72 90 / 0 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17