760
FXUS64 KLCH 271800
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cooler conditions prevail for the rest of the of the
  week.

- Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching
  cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Another round of unseasonably cool weather to return at the
  beginning of the next work week, along with lingering rain
  chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A beautiful Thanksgiving morning is ongoing across the forecast
area, with mostly clear skies, temps in the 50s and dewpoints in the
mid 20s to mid 30s noted across the region. Surface high pressure
extending from Canada to the Southern Plains will continue to build
south into the forecast area today and tomorrow, keeping pleasant
and dry weather in place for a bit longer. Highs warm into the low
to mid 60s today and tomorrow, while lows fall into the mid 30s to
low 40s tonight.

Tomorrow evening into Saturday, surface high pressure slides east
towards the Carolinas allowing surface winds to turn east and
eventually southeast overhead. At the same time, a potent low
pressure system dives out of the Rockies and across the Plains
throughout Saturday, with the forecast area becoming situated
between strong high pressure to the east and strong low pressure to
the west. A tightening pressure gradient between these features will
allow onshore flow to strengthen throughout Sat and bring a surge of
moisture into the region from the south. As moisture pools overhead
and the low pressure system/cold front draw closer rain chances
begin to ramp up from the west. Initially the best chance of rain on
Saturday will be more to our north and west, with low end POPs over
most of the CWA until the second half of Sat. By Sat evening the cold
front will be surging through the Ark-La-Tex with showers and storms
developing along and ahead of the boundary. Rain chances ramp up
across the forecast area Sat night as the boundary moves into the
region, with majority of the forecast area progged to see over an
inch of rain through this period. As a result, WPC has outlined the
entire CWA in a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall, as localized flash
flooding may become a concern through the overnight period
especially.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

While the front moves through early Sunday, moisture will lingering
in its wake through the early work week as zonal flow persists
aloft. This will bring about a period of unseasonably cool and wet
weather Sun through roughly the first half of Tuesday until an upper
trough and surface high pressure finally bring a push of dry air.
Until the dry air arrives, showers and storms will continue. Sunday,
rain chances look to taper down slightly through the
afternoon/overnight hours as moisture decreases slightly however,
rain chances ramp up again throughout Monday into early Tuesday as a
second surge of moisture arrives. At the same time, strong CAA in
the wake of Sunday`s front will result in high temps only reaching
into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Monday and low to mid 50s on Tuesday,
while overnight lows range from the mid 30s to mid 40s Sun/Mon
night. Tuesday night brings the coldest temps of the period as dry
air finally arrives, with a widespread freeze expected for areas
north of I-190, with mid/upper 30s elsewhere. The end of the long
term brings moderating temps as surface high pressure again exits to
the east, followed by possibly another round of elevated rain
chances by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mostly clear skies prevail through early tomorrow. Thereafter, VFR
cloud cover will slowly build into the region from the north and
west. Otherwise, only a wind forecast through the period as breezy
NE winds this afternoon relax overnight and slowly turn more E
tomorrow.

17

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

NE winds relax slightly this afternoon through tonight however,
small craft should continue to exercise caution. Tomorrow into the
weekend, winds turn E and eventually SE and steadily increase once
again. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer
coastal waters beginning at 6AM tomorrow, with an extended period
of SCA conditions for all waters expected tomorrow night into the
weekend. In addition, a cold front approaching from the west this
weekend will bring an increased chance of rain Sat afternoon
through early next week, with rain chances peaking Sat night/Sun
morning. Post frontal passage winds become north and remain strong
and gusty.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Very dry air will linger through tomorrow, with min RH values in
the mid 20 to mid 30s both today and tomorrow. Sat, moisture
returns quickly as breezy onshore flow develops. An approaching
cold front will bring increasing rain chances by early Sat for SE
TX, spreading east throughout Sat/Sat night. Rain chances
continue post-frontal passage Sun through Tues and moisture
lingers. While dry air won`t arrive until late Tues, cold air
advection will bring a much colder airmass into the region
throughout Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  59  41  68 /   0   0  10  50
LCH  39  63  49  73 /   0   0  10  40
LFT  38  62  45  71 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  43  65  54  74 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ450-452-455-470-
     472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17