244
FXUS64 KLCH 051733
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1133 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

Wx map shows surface high pressure ridging across the Gulf, keeping
southerly winds 5 to 10 mph across the area. Further north, a
stationary front across the ArkLaTex separates our warm humid
airmass across our area with the much colder temperatures north of
the boundary. Areas of dense marine fog continue across the near
shore coastal waters, lakes, and bays. May see some brief improvement
this afternoon, but most guidance shows the dense fog becoming
widespread by late afternoon, and especially this evening through
late Thursday morning (and likely beyond). For now, extended the
marine Dense Fog Advisory through Noon Thursday.

Otherwise, temperatures late this morning range from the upper
60s/near 70 where clouds continue over Central Louisiana to
mid/upper 70s where more clearing has taken place further south.
Minor updates to forecast to account for the slightly higher
temperatures, now expecting upper 70s/near 80 for most areas
along and north of I-10, with lower 70s near the coast due to the
influence of the cooler shelf waters.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Not much has changed in the forecast as surface analysis shows
high pressure in the eastern Gulf that continues to push warm,
moist air onshore. Aloft ridging continues to suppress convection
across SWLA and SETX. In addition, our weather will remain warm
and muggy with daytime highs reaching into the upper 70s to low
80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Beaumont broke its record high
temperature yesterday. This is the third day in a row that
Beaumont has broken its high temperature record! The rest of the
region remained one to two degrees shy of breaking heat records.

The conditions that led to widespread dense fog the past several
nights have started to change. We still expect patchy fog with
pockets of poor visibility, but overall, visibility will improve
during the overnight hours. Increased cloud coverage has started
to limit inland radiation fog formation. Fog will remain dense
near the coast where the warm air mass will be moving over the
cold SSTs in the Gulf, creating a marine fog layer. Offshore and
along the coast, probabilities for visibility below 1/4 mile are
around 50%, with visibilities below 1 mile around 70 to 80%.

This pattern will continue through the end of the work week as our
upper air pattern remains flat across central CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The start of the long-term forecast will have more warm and muggy
conditions, but change will be on the way. Our upper air pattern
will begin to change during the weekend as an upper-level low will
move into the west coast. This low will push a weak cold front
south across the region. Some uncertainty has increased with this
front, with the earliest time of arrival being on Sunday. Some of
the more recent model runs have pushed the front farther back,
with the ECMWF keeping the front north of us until Monday. This
front will be on the weaker side with scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms expected with its passage. The main
impact from the front will be cooler temperatures, back down to
our normal temperature range.

Near the end of the extended forecast, there are signals for a
second, stronger cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Southerly winds, scattered cloud cover and warm conditions
prevail. Ceilings are a mixture of IFR, MVFR and VFR courtesy of
moisture pools observed around the region. Expect these cloud
decks to continue varying between these heights through the
afternoon before tanking again this evening.

There is medium forecaster confidence in areas of fog developing
at the coastal terminals after 06Z with the greatest concentration
occurring around 12Z. Current guidance keeps VIS between 1/2 SM
and 1SM, so there may not be dense fog. However, as latest night
model guidance comes in, later TAFs may carry dense fog VIS.

Expect variable winds from the south to prevail over the period.
There could be a few gusts this afternoon due to daytime
heating/mixing, but these will be sporadic at best. Winds will
remain from the south but will diminish after sunset.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...

Dense marine fog will continue today through late Thursday morning
across the nearshore waters, lakes and bays. The Dense Fog Advisory
has been extended through Noon Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure
over the Eastern Gulf will keep light onshore flow through the
period.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  64  81  61 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  79  64  77  63 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  80  65  80  63 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  80  64  77  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11