206
FXUS64 KLCH 160921
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
421 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlined across
  across the forecast area through tonight

- Minor river flooding is expected to persist over the next few days
  across portions of Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances decrease slightly into the midweek
  ahead, but daily scattered thundershowers remain possible
  through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

We start off with an upper level trough centered over the
Mississippi Delta this morning. This feature, in part, has been
the cause of the unsettled wet pattern that has been observed over
the last several days. Meanwhile a shallow shortwave trough is
deepening across the Central and Southern Plains throughout the
day. As the trough progresses eastward, the remnant ULL over the
Gulf Coast will be absorbed and help strengthen this feature.
While the evolution hereafter will create more notable downstream
impacts, mainly precipitation, across TN and MS Valleys, we do
expect a regeneration of scattered convection during the morning
and late afternoon hours. Last night`s 00z sounding captured a
very soupy atmosphere- measuring a PWAT of 1.98". This value is
above the 90th percentile for mid June, locally. Despite some
modification in the mid-levels it is forecast that the
troposphere will hold on to much of the moisture allowing the
opportunity for a Marginal risk of Flash Flooding once more.
Again, this forecast stresses the recent rainfalls that hath
lowered flash flood guidance- which simply means it takes less
rainfall to lead to flooding given our saturated soils.


The prognosis going forward Tuesday is a waining slack upper
level troughing along the coast to yield less directional shear
aloft east of the TX/LA state line. Therefore, much of the
favorable lift and moisture rich troposphere shifts east favoring
more south central and southeast LA. A weak NW flow across eastern
TX will begin to introduce more subsidence and likely temper
convection potential along with PoPs. Given less filtered sunshine
in the mix, high temperatures will climb back toward the lower
90`s again and remain so through the remainder of short term as
precipitation takes on a more isolated nature into the long range.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Another shallow shortwave trough is progged to move through the
midwest on Thursday with some amplification south as it transits
across the Great Lakes region. Locally, the forcing dynamics aloft
are not particularly impressive. Model guidance, however, is
suggestive that a degree moisture convergence will occur across
the SETX / SWLA area. Forecast soundings at this time introduce
more notable inversions and dry layers, however, pop up or
Seabreeze driven activity still remains possible.

The long term forecast carries less organized precipitation and
naturally offers a slight increase in diurnal highs into the lower
90`s areawide for the latter have the week into this weekend.
For now, impacts of precipitation carry far more uncertainty-
beyond garden variety isolated pop up thundershowers.
Strengthening of the Atlantic ridge into the Gulf may increase the
pressure gradient along the western Gulf as it abuts stronger
thermal troughing over Mexico, potentially leading to a more
enhanced onshore flow at the end of the period.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Remnant clouds are hanging over the area from convection earlier
this afternoon. Low clouds and patchy fog are expected, especially
around AEX.

Guidance brings the next round of convection into the area from
the west just prior to sunrise. Unsure of this taking place
considering the worked over environment. However, there is an
outflow boundary now in place across the western part of the
region which may be a focus for convection early in the morning
hours. Due to this possible scenario, mentions of SHRA were
brought in as early as 13Z with an increase in coverage and
changeover to TSRA expected through the mid to late mornings.

Expect a decrease in activity towards the early evening with
convection ending after 00Z.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the next several
days. Combined seas are between 1 and 3 feet are will be steady
for the next several days. The main concern will be local impacts
from showers and thunderstorms, primary during the afternoon
hours. That said, lingering shower activity may periodically
extend during the overnight hours near the 20-60nm offshore zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  73  91  73 /  80  20  40   0
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  70  10  50   0
LFT  88  75  88  75 /  80  10  70  10
BPT  88  75  89  77 /  80  10  40   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11