857
FXUS64 KLCH 010530
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1130 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A coastal low will develop on Monday ahead of another cold front
  and will bring a chance for locally heavy rainfall through
  Monday night. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall
  Monday into Monday night.

- A brief dry period for Tuesday into Wednesday with cold
  temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be possible down to the
  I-10 corridor Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Another frontal system and coastal low is expected to bring high
  rain chances at the end of the week with another chance for
  locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The rest of tonight will be cold and breezy as the cold front
from yesterday remains offshore. Aloft a strong jet at 250 mb will
keep us in a generally unstable pattern with overcast skies and
light rain.

Aloft an upper level trough will move across the Rockies and will
pull more Gulf moisture into our area. PWAT values will rise into
the 90th percentile with high RH content in the low and mid
levels. If this sounds similar to the rain event on Saturday you
would be right! This is basically a repeat with the complication
of that a surface low is expected to form along the coast due to
difluence from an upper-level jet. With the additional convergence
from the stalled cold front we can expect more widespread heavy
rain Monday through Tuesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be
between 1 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts. We do have a
Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for Monday.

A second cold front will move across the region late Monday night
and should be offshore by Tuesday morning. Behind the front more
cold dry air will cause our temperatures to plummet. By Tuesday
night lows will be below freezing north of I-10 with lows in the
mid 30s down to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

By the middle of the week post frontal high pressure will bring
clear skies and a break from the active weather. But that break
will be short lived as a the next low pressure system will be
moving off the Rockies. This system will pull warm moist Gulf air
north, driving up PWATs and RH levels setting us up for more heavy
rain. WPC has placed us under a Marginal ERO on Thursday. The rain
event on Thursday and Friday still has a lot of questions but
the main threat looks to be heavy rain.

Temperatures through the end of the week will be near normal with
highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions will continue through the night as a
frontal inversion and cold air advection will keep cloud decks
below 10 kft. Brief periods of -RA will be possible before the
next round of heavy rain begins around 14Z. With the heavy rain
conditions will be IFR/LIFR with low CIGs and VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of our coastal
waters as strong cold air advection behind the front continues.
There will be a short break from the wind Monday afternoon until
the next cold front moves offshore causing north winds around 20
knots and gusts of 25 knots. A second small craft advisory will be
in place late Monday night until Tuesday afternoon. Altimeter data has
lined up well with model guidance with wave heights between 5 and
6 feet in the outer waters and 2 to 4 feet in the inner coastal
waters.

With low tide on Tuesday we could need a low water advisory as
water levels will drop between -0.5 to -1.0 feet below MLLW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Multiple rounds of wetting rain has helped drop our KBDI values
from 700 to below 500 across the CWA. We will have a period of
dry weather on Tuesday before the next round of heavy rain on
Wednesday and Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  54  37  48  32 /  70  40  90  90
LCH  63  43  54  39 / 100  40  90  80
LFT  61  46  59  39 /  90  30  90  90
BPT  62  43  54  38 /  90  40  90  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14