922
FXUS64 KLCH 012352
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
552 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall now into
   tonight with additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches on top
   of the 0.25 to 1.25 inches we have already received.

-  A brief dry period for Tuesday into Wednesday with cold
   temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be possible north of
   the I-10 Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

-  Another frontal system and coastal low is expected to bring
   high rain chances at the end of the week with another chance
   for locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Light to heavy showers and very isolated storms have continued to
push eastward through the CWA this afternoon with this activity
expected to taper tonight into very early tomorrow morning. There
is a Marginal Risk ERO covering most of the CWA today, with
additional rainfall totals up to 2 inches on top of the 0.25 to
1.25 inches we have already received.

A cool high pressure will
move into TX early Tuesday, center itself over the MS River Valley
that evening, then center itself over the SE CONUS by early
Wednesday. This will allow for southerly flow to quickly return
ahead of another front that will progress towards the region
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Continuing from the short term, the front will be progressing
towards us, with showers and storms spreading across the CWA ahead
of it. Once again, we will have another Marginal Risk ERO with
totals around 1 to 2 inches possible. There could be some stronger
storms along with this, however severe weather is not expected at
this time. Showers will linger into the end of the week, with a
surface high building in over the weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A frontal boundary presently bisecting the region will push
through LCH over the next hour and through LFT and ARA by 03Z. A
persistent light to moderate rain shield will continue ahead of
the boundary with scattered light rain continuing in it`s wake
until approximately 06Z tonight. IFR ceilings will prevail this
evening into Tuesday morning with the low level ceiling dissipating
by late Tuesday morning. Northerly winds will increase behind the
front tonight into Tuesday with gusts as high as 25 knots.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory has ended, replaced by an Exercise Caution
from now until tonight when the cold front moves offshore, causing
north winds around 20 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. During that
time, another SC.Y will be in effect until Tuesday afternoon. With
low tide on Tuesday, we could need a low water advisory for Sabine
and Calcasieu as water levels will drop between -0.5 to -1.0 feet
below MLLW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Multiple rounds of wetting rain have helped drop our KBDI values
from 700 to at or below 500 across a majority of the CWA. We will
have a period of dry weather on Tuesday before the next round of
heavy rain starting late Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  32  50  27  57 / 100   0   0  10
LCH  37  54  35  63 / 100   0   0  10
LFT  39  51  34  62 / 100   0   0  10
BPT  37  55  39  66 /  90   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...66