613
FXUS64 KLCH 161259
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
759 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper ridge overhead will limit cloud cover and thunderstorm activity
  this afternoon allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid
  to upper 90s.

- A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for south central Louisiana
  Thursday through Saturday.

- Heavy rainfall from a tropical disturbance will have the
  potential to produce rainfall totals of 1-6 inches Thursday
  through Saturday with amounts of up to 15 inches possible in a
  few locations across south central Louisiana.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A slack ridge of high pressure currently rests across the Midsouth
extending west into the Southern Plains. This will create a warm
afternoon with highs today in the mid to upper 90`s over interior
locations. Without hesitation, the big picture over the next several
days will be impacts associated with a tropical disturbance moving
east across the northern Gulf waters today. As of the time of this
latest forecast package, the primary impacts are going to be hydro
driven. It`s important to note excessive rainfall risks associated
with tropical moisture can become hidden behind the concerns of
winds and other severe modes. Regardless of development, the concern
for flash flooding is first and foremost. In collaboration with the
Storm Prediction Center, there are no outlined risks for severe
weather at this time through the end of the work week. However, in
our discussions with the Weather Prediction Center, we do believe
the threat of flash flooding will increase through Friday.

Briefly elaborating on the evolution, we have an upper level low
parked off the TX / MEX Gulf Coast. This trough will slowly migrate
west into the Sierra Madres leaving an easterly flow pattern across
the northern Gulf. These light winds will help serve as a steering
mechanism to carry the tropical disturbance from the Florida
Panhandle toward the Mississippi Delta by Thursday. However,
moisture carrying westward with the primary flow aloft will begin to
overspread by Wednesday. Periodic rounds of rainfall will spread
over SWLA and later SETX with increasing coverage through
Thursday.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

By Friday morning, the tropical disturbance will begin to interact
with weak continental ridging extending across the Southern Plains.
Deterministic models are hesitant to show further tropical
development at this point. However, the moisture will still be
present even as this system starts to become disorganized at that
time. Guidance has been congruent over the last couple days
illustrating a healthy plume of moisture encroaching further
inland over the forecast area with the potential of having periods
of heavy slow moving showers / storms. A moderate risk for
excessive rainfall is in place to account for this increased
activity through Friday night.

Hereafter, while there is some uncertainty regarding the
evolution of the tropical disturbance through the rest of the
weekend, much of the guidance pulls the disturbance / trough
inland to become disorganized and absorbed into the the mid-
latitude pattern. Periods of rainfall are likely through Saturday
but do begin to decrease into Sunday. Following the disturbance,
will be an expanding high pressure from the western Atlantic into
the central Gulf which will facilitate south to southeasterly
flowing and keep the isolated chances of shower / storms into the
following week ahead.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas of patchy fog developed this morning beneath subsidence
aloft. These areas of lower VIS are now dissipating with sunrise.
Expect an increase in low and upper level cloud cover today as
a tropical disturbance begins sending tropical moisture into the
region from the south and east.
A few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible during afternoon hours, but widespread precipitation
isn`t expected to move towards area terminals until very late
tonight or early Thursday.

Winds will vary over the period as the gradient begins to slowly
feel the effects of the approaching tropical disturbance.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through this afternoon. Winds
and seas will increase Thursday through the weekend as a tropical
disturbance moves across the northern gulf. There is a 40% chance
of this disturbance strengthening into a tropical storm.
Regardless of development, gusty winds and widespread rain is
expected Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through Wednesday. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range from 40 - 70% today, increasing 50 - 70% by
tomorrow afternoon. Widespread rain and gusty winds are expected
Thursday through Saturday as a tropical disturbance moves across
the northern gulf impacting the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  75  95  74 /  10   0  40  30
LCH  93  76  91  76 /  10  10  60  60
LFT  92  77  88  75 /  20  30  90  60
BPT  93  74  91  74 /  10   0  40  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for
     LAZ032-033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...11