545
FXUS64 KLCH 011749
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1149 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and humid conditions with dense fog can be
  expected into Monday.

- An upper level low will move a cold front across late Tuesday with
  showers and thunderstorms likely. There will be a potential for
  some strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.

- Cooler more seasonably temperatures with dry conditions can be expected
  behind the front on Wednesday through the end of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A few lingering showers are still in the region as the remnants
of this afternoons showers are fading away. Rainfall amounts were
on the higher side of the forecast with SWLA receiving between 1
to 3 inches of rain with lower amounts for central Louisiana and
Acadiana. Still most of the region received a wetting rain. With
the moist airmass from the system and wet ground from todays rain
dense fog is a concern. A dense fog advisory in effect from
midnight until 9 am Sunday morning.

Sunday and Monday a ridge will build in place over the region
limiting active weather with PoPs dropping back down into the low
teens. On Tuesday, a cutoff low will dig south from the Rockies
with a surface low developing in the northern Great Plains. Ahead
of the front winds will become southernly pulling Gulf moisture
north. With more moist air our weather will become humid and warm.
PWATs will also increase rising into the 90th percentile with
values between 1.8 to 2.0 inches. The WPC has placed our area
under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding on
Tuesday. In addition to the flooding risk there are some signals
for strong to severe weather as the front moves through our area.
While guidance shows the best environment to our north CAPE values
for our CWA are around 1000 to 1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear
between 20 and 30 knots. These kinematics are enough to support
organized convection with a QLCS looking the most likely with
this forecast package.

With the frontal passage still several days away there is a lot of
uncertainty with the forecast, especially when it comes to
specific storm threats.

After the front we will finally start to see more seasonal
temperatures with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s.
Along with north to northwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A weak upper level disturbance located over Acadiana will gradually
weaken during the period. This system will bring some showers in the
vicinity of KLFT/KARA/KAEX through 02/00z. Otherwise, daytime
heating and a moist low layer will provide occasional broken MVFR
ceilings for the remainder of the afternoon.

Clearing skies and more stable conditions are expected tonight for
KLCH/KBPT. With the light winds and very moist low layer, low
stratus and fog will develop with the potential for IFR/LIFR.
Meanwhile, the weak upper level disturbance will meander across
south central and east central Louisiana. A few showers may persist
during the night. Low clouds and patchy fog is expected for
KLFT/KARA/KAEX with MVFR/IFR conditions.

07/Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Winds will remain light to moderate from the east for the rest of
the weekend and Monday. By Tuesday, winds will shift to become
onshore before the passage of a cold front Tuesday evening will
bring offshore winds around 15 to 20 knots. With the front showers
and thunderstorms are expected.

Behind the front winds will be from the north to northwest around
10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Much needed rain was received today along as a humid airmass
moved into the region. Rainfall amounts were more widespread than
forecasted with most of the region receiving a wetting rain.

MinRH values will be between 60 and 70% for Sunday and Monday with
100% moisture recovery each night. The next chance for rain will
be Tuesday as a cold front moves across the Gulf coast.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14
AVIATION...07