305
FXUS64 KLCH 031129
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level low will move a cold front across Tuesday
  afternoon and night with showers and thunderstorms likely.
  There will be a potential for some strong storms with gusty
  winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible through early Tuesday
  morning, with tide levels up to 1.5-1.8 feet above mean higher
  high water expected.

- Temperatures will be more seasonable behind the front with a secondary
  upper level disturbance bringing a chance of showers on
  Thursday.

- A cold front with more of a Canadian origin will move through at
  the end of the week bringing chilly night time temperatures for
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water vapor imagery and evening upper air analysis depict weak upper-
level ridging pushing off to our east tonight. A strong upper-level
trough is currently centered over the western High Plains, with an
associated surface low analyzed over western Kansas and a cold front
extending southward through the Texas panhandle. These features will
move eastward over the next day and will be the main focus of the
short term period.

Southeasterly flow is well established over our CWA between this
approaching frontal system and a broad surface high currently
centered off the Atlantic coast. This flow has allowed rich Gulf
moisture to advect over the area, with surface dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s. A few light showers are still ongoing over southeast
Texas, but these have remained weak owing to a strong cap at 750 mb
evident on the 00z KLCH RAOB. Expect shower activity to gradually
weaken overnight.

This southeast flow will also result in some minor coastal flooding
with tonight`s high tide cycle, with latest guidance showing water
levels reaching up to 1.5-1.8 feet above MHHW. A coastal flood
advisory has been issued until tomorrow morning to account for this
threat.

Upper forcing from the approaching trough will begin to arrive
Tuesday morning, as winds begin to turn more southerly with the cold
front approaching. CAMs indicate the development of isolated showers
and a few thunderstorms in the warm sector by early afternoon as
instability builds, though confidence in the extent and strength of
this activity is low. The cold front itself will be accompanied by a
line of thunderstorms and will sweep across the area in the late
afternoon through early overnight hours.

Parameters continue to look favorable for a few of these storms to
become strong to severe, particularly along the cold front. The
better forcing and shear will remain displaced to the north, but
should be enough for some storm organization over our CWA with
guidance depicting 0-6 km shear values around 30 kt. While
destabilization will be limited by cloud cover, sufficient
instability for some stronger updrafts should develop, with HREF
mean SBCAPE getting up to 1000-2000 J/kg in advance of the front in
the afternoon. The strength of any pre-frontal warm sector activity
will generally be limited by weak CAPE, but if any stronger
storms are able to develop, the environment would be favorable for
updraft rotation with the more backed surface winds causing an
increase in low-level helicity, which would bring the potential
for damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. The
shear profile generally becomes more unidirectional as the front
approaches, which will yield more of a damaging wind threat along
the front itself, but a spin-up weak tornado still can`t be
entirely ruled out as several models do show some low- level
hodograph curvature. Severe potential will decrease as the front
moves into Acadiana in the late evening hours with instability
waning. Accordingly, SPC has highlighted areas northwest of a
Cameron-Lafayette line in a marginal risk (level 1/5) of severe
weather for both wind and tornado threats.

Aside from the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall may also be a
concern given the anomalously moist airmass. LREF mean PWAT exceeds
1.8 inches along the front, which would be 95th percentile relative
to climatology, and model soundings depict warm cloud layer depths
approaching 14 kft. Dry antecedent conditions and storm motions
greater than 20 kt should tend to limit the flash flood threat, but
with mid-level flow parallel to the moisture axis along the front,
some training may be possible that would locally enhance rainfall
totals. WPC maintains a marginal risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall for the entire CWA for Tuesday. NBM mean QPF is around
0.5 to 1.25 inches for most of the area, with higher values
further north, though localized totals in excess of 2 inches will
be possible.

Northwesterly flow and a much drier airmass will spread into the
area on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front, with afternoon
highs about 5 degrees lower than Tuesday`s values. This trend will
be short-lived, however, with southerly flow expected to return at
some point Thursday and bring a return of warmer temperatures and
dewpoints in the 60s. A passing upper-level wave may interact with
this moisture to produce scattered showers Thursday night into
Friday, but there is substantial model disagreement between models
in terms of timing and intensity of this moisture and/or any upper
disturbances.

By the start of the weekend, an upper-level trough and associated
surface low will push through the Midwest, which looks to send a
cold front south through the Mississippi Valley and through our CWA
late Friday. While rain chances do not look too impressive with this
system at the moment, it does look to bring a more substantial
cooling trend. Uncertainty is high at this lead time, but current
guidance has lows dipping into the 40s across the CWA by the start
of next week, with perhaps even some 30s for central LA.

64/Silas

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Mostly IFR to MVFR ceilings are anticipated this morning, however
ceilings will lift to mostly VFR by afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will move across the region late morning through
early evening which may cause periods of lower vis and ceilings
and gusty winds. SE winds this morning will veer SW behind a
broken line of storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Southeast flow around 5-15 kt will turn more southerly Tuesday
morning ahead of a cold front, along with a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms. The front will cross the coastal waters Tuesday
evening into early Wednesday morning and will be accompanied by a
line of showers and thunderstorms, particularly further west where
some of the storms may be strong. A period of 5-15 kt northerly flow
will then set up in the wake of the front through Wednesday, before
light onshore flow returns for the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A warm and humid airmass remains in place with light southeast
flow. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
during the day Tuesday before a cold front brings a line of
showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong, across the
CWA Tuesday afternoon and evening. Chances for a wetting rain
(greater than 0.25 inches) increase from south to north, ranging
from 10 percent for lower Acadiana to 90 percent for central
Louisiana. In the wake of this system, a slightly drier airmass
will settle into the region, with afternoon minimum RH around
45-55 percent.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     LAZ073-074-241-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     TXZ615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...05