Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
172 FXUS64 KLCH 311738 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances gradually taper down through the next couple of days as a stalled boundary near the coast moves off to the south and drier air filters in behind it - Near normal temperatures and slightly drier air are expected through the mid/later half of the week as a couple of weak fronts move across the area && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Sunday morning surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped across the northern Gulf Coast, while aloft troughing is over the E CONUS while weak ridging stretches from the desert SW to the western Gulf. A swath of deep moisture extends across east TX into the northwestern Gulf, between these two features aloft, which has resulted in widespread stratiform rain across portions of eastern TX this morning. Most of this convection is currently west of our forecast area however, it is slowly progressing east/southeast and should begin to affect our SE TX counties through the next few hours. WPC has pushed the Day 1 ERO westward a bit, with our TX counties now only included in the Marginal Risk. Across the remainder of the forecast area, a few isolated showers may develop through the afternoon hours, amid otherwise partly cloudy skies. Temperatures should top out in the mid to upper 80s, with cooler temps across interior SE TX and warmer temps across Acadiana. Heading into the Mon/Tues time frame, the east CONUS trough will gradually amplify overhead, sending the stalled boundary further south into the Gulf waters and also gradually pushing the very moist airmass overhead southward as well. Tomorrow, the best chance for rain will be south of I-10, especially near the coast, with lesser chances inland. By Tuesday, only very isolated convection is expected, as PWATs return to near normal. Temperature wise, highs top out in the upper 80s to low 90s, while lows fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The second half of the work week brings a continuation of the early week drying trend, along with more seasonal temperatures. Upper level troughing continues to amplify over the eastern CONUS Wed-Fri, sending a couple of weak fronts through the forecast area as it does so. While these boundaries won`t bring any cooler temps they will bring a bit of drier air, allowing dewpoints to fall into the low to mid 60s Thurs and Fri. While temperatures continue to warm into the low to mid 90s, this shot of drier air will bring a slight reprieve from typical early Sept heat/humidity. Unfortunately by the weekend a return of moisture is expected, as the upper level trough retreats northward. Low end rain chances return to the forecast Sat and Sun, mainly to account for the possibility of isolated daytime heating driven showers. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Mid/upper level overcast cloud deck will continue to gradually work its way into the area from the NW today. In addition, a scattered to broken cloud deck around 2000 feet will cause some sites to waffle between MVFR and VFR this afternoon. Shower activity will be possible near BPT and LCH this afternoon, with the other sites expected to remain rain free. Remainder of the TAF period should bring light easterly winds and VFR conditions. Minimal rain chances are on tap tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A stationary front draped along the coast will be the focus for showers and storms through the next few days as it slowly meanders south through the coastal waters. Winds will be mainly E to NE through the next couple of days, before becoming more W to NW Wed through Fri. Rain chances taper off Wed, with dry conditions expected through the second half of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the next couple of days, particularly across SE TX and the coastal areas, in response to a slowly advancing frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Wind will be mainly out of the east through the next couple of days, before gradually turning more W to NW by early Wednesday. A shot of slightly drier air will overspread the area through Wed, bringing rain chances to near zero for the second half of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 91 68 91 / 10 10 10 20 LCH 73 89 72 90 / 20 30 20 30 LFT 72 90 71 89 / 10 20 10 20 BPT 73 89 73 91 / 30 40 20 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17