212
FXUS64 KLCH 171957
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
257 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Excessive Rain Outlook is outlined for eastern
  portions of the forecast area today while minor river flooding
  is expected to persist over the next few days across portions of
  Sabine and Neches

- Rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease slightly into
  the midweek ahead, but daily scattered thundershowers remain
  possible through the forecast period

- Max temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s by the end of
  the work week with min temps hovering in the mid 70s range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tomorrow night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Isolated to scattered showers ongoing mainly across the parishes
and Gulf waters, however we will see more of our afternoon pop up
showers and storms across most of the CWA within the next few
hours.

Currently there is a weak upper trough pretty much stretched over
the Mid West States down to the MS River Delta. This trough will
continue to weaken as it drifts eastward. However with a shortwave
rounding the base, we will see an uptick in our diurnal activity.
This activity is expected to taper this evening shortly after
sunset.

With the trough shifting off and the western upper ridge slightly
building into TX, PoPs will be isolated at best over there,
however we will still have iso to sct showers and storms tomorrow
over our eastern / southeastern parishes. Winds will still be
southerly and PWATs will still be high, so it will not take much
to get things going by the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Mid to late work week an upper ridge to our west will build
eastward, eventually centering itself over AR by the weekend. We
will see a reduction in moisture leading to an overall reduction in
PoPs. We will still see our run of the mill diurnally driven PoPs in
the afternoon to evening hours, however less so across parts of
SETX and parts of CenLA.

Temperatures will remain to be shower coverage dependent. Areas that
see prolonged cloud /  shower coverage will be a few degrees cooler,
however MaxTs will be hovering around climo norms with MinTs sitting
a few degrees above. It will remain humid and feel like a normal
Gulf Coast summer with heat indices in the 100-106 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An uptick in diurnal pop up showers and storms ongoing across the
CWA. This will continue through the rest of the afternoon, with
tapering into the evening. We could see a few areas of patchy fog
overnight, however the models are only hinting at VIS reductions
to MVFR. Whatever fog forms will burnoff shortly after sunrise.
The only other thing to note are elevated sustained and gusty
southerly flow. This will taper overnight, with strengthening late
tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Additionally, we will see
another round of iso to sct PoPs tomorrow afternoon, mainly near
the Acadiana terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet. 20-60nm waters off High
Island, Tx to Cameron, LA may range toward 2 and 4 feet with
slight strengthening of southerly flow across the NW Gulf on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  92  73  93 /  10  20   0  50
LCH  77  89  77  90 /  10  30  10  60
LFT  74  89  75  90 /  10  50  20  80
BPT  77  90  77  91 /   0  20  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87