Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
120 FXUS64 KLCH 290530 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1230 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much higher rain chances expected today and Saturday as significant moisture surges into the region ahead of another frontal boundary - These storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to nuisance street flooding. - Below normal temperatures expected through much of next week as a series of weak frontal boundaries pushes through the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Storms across central Louisiana which have been producing copious lightning over the last few hours are beginning to weaken at this hour although this lull is expected to be short lived. These storms are associated with surging moisture from a digging upper trof that will continue to work into the region today. CAMS guidance are in good agreement on convective redevelopment across central Louisiana by around sunrise before expanding across the region from late morning through late evening. Given the saturated column, most of these storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to periods of nuisance street flooding. Most of the region remains in a slight risk for excessive rainfall Friday per WPC`s latest Excessive Rainfall Outlook with marginal risks extending from Saturday through Monday. The severe weather risk appears limited although frequent lightning and gusty winds will be possible with some storms. Storms will likely linger through the late evening with gradual dissipation late Friday night into early Saturday morning. The significant rain and cloud cover is expected to hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s Another round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected Saturday as the trof and deep moisture remain in place across the region which will again hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. There is a bit more uncertainty regarding PoPs on Sunday with the ECMWF consistently drier than GFS ensembles. Scattered convection is still anticipated, but overall coverage may be somewhat lower than Friday and Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Gradually drier conditions will move into the region early next week as the deep tropical moisture is pushed offshore by a weak frontal boundary. This drier air will be reinforced by the passage of another weak frontal boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday. While afternoon highs will still climb to around 90, lower dewpoints will make the temperatures more tolerable while also allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid 60s to around 70 Wednesday night through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Isolated showers and storms continue to move south over CenLA, however no further impacts are expected to our northern terminals for the rest of the night. Late tomorrow morning to the afternoon hours we will see another round of convection ramp up across CenLA, where the boundary is, then work its way south through the rest of the afternoon to evening hours. Some of these storms could be strong, with gusty winds and heavy rain leading to reduced VIS. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Light onshore winds and low seas will prevail into early Saturday. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop today ahead of a slowly advancing frontal boundary. This front will slide toward the coast Saturday morning which should bring about widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Winds will turn offshore from Saturday afternoon through the middle of next week as the frontal boundary moves off the coast and into the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Humidity will increase significantly today through Sunday as moisture surges ahead of a frontal boundary yielding widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of the weekend. The front will push through the area Saturday afternoon turning light winds out of the north through mid next week pulling some slightly drier air into the region Monday and Tuesday. A reinforcing frontal boundary will move through the region Wednesday maintaining the drier air through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 83 69 85 69 / 90 40 60 20 LCH 87 74 87 73 / 70 60 80 40 LFT 86 74 88 73 / 80 50 70 20 BPT 90 74 89 74 / 50 50 70 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...87