296
FXUS64 KLCH 160539
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal risk of excessive rainfall has been outlined across
  across the forecast area through tonight

- Minor river flooding is expected to persist over the next few days
  across portions of Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances decrease slightly into the midweek
  ahead, but daily scattered thundershowers remain possible
  through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Hot and muggy conditions will persist, accompanied by afternoon
showers and thunderstorms as weak troughing remains overhead. Hand
analysis indicates equivalent wind speeds in both the entrance and
exit regions of the 500 mb trough, indicating that our quasi-
stationary pattern will continue. At the surface, ridging from
high pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to push warm,
moist air northward from the Gulf. Daily PWAT values will remain
elevated, above the 75th percentile, while ensemble tables show
moisture levels at 925 mb surpassing the 90th percentile. Given
the saturated environment and the slow-moving nature of summertime
convection, flash flooding will be a concern today and Monday.

By Tuesday, our pattern will begin to shift as a jet streak across
the central Plains forces the trough eastward, while a ridge
builds over the desert Southwest. Temperatures and humidity will
remain uncomfortable, with daytime highs ranging from the upper
80s to low 90s and dew points lingering in the mid-70s. Passing
showers will offer the only real chance for relief. Otherwise, be
sure to stay hydrated and find ways to keep cool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The forecast for the second half of the week will be a balancing
act between diurnal convection and upper-level ridging, with 850,
700, and 500 mb heights rising steadily throughout the second half
of the week. Despite the expected increasing strength of the
ridge, afternoon PoPs look to remain in the 3050% range, with
higher values in the eastern half of the region. The primary
concern for the latter half of the week will be steadily rising
temperatures, with highs reaching the mid-90s in central Louisiana
and the low-90s elsewhere. Heat index values are also trending
upward, climbing into the triple digits across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Remnant clouds are hanging over the area from convection earlier
this afternoon. Low clouds and patchy fog are expected, especially
around AEX.

Guidance brings the next round of convection into the area from
the west just prior to sunrise. Unsure of this taking place
considering the worked over environment. However, there is an
outflow boundary now in place across the western part of the
region which may be a focus for convection early in the morning
hours. Due to this possible scenario, mentions of SHRA were
brought in as early as 13Z with an increase in coverage and
changeover to TSRA expected through the mid to late mornings.

Expect a decrease in activity towards the early evening with
convection ending after 00Z.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue for the next several
days. Combined seas are between 1 and 3 feet are will be steady
for the next several days. The main concern will be local impacts
from showers and thunderstorms, primary during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  73  90  73 /  70  20  40   0
LCH  88  77  88  77 /  60  10  50   0
LFT  88  75  88  75 /  80  10  70   0
BPT  88  76  88  77 /  60  10  40   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11