Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
505 FXUS64 KLCH 291123 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 623 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low level southerly flow will become reestablished early this week causing moisture to increase. This will lead to more humid conditions along with temperatures that are already above seasonal norms. - Next chance for rain can be expected late Wednesday or early Thursday as the upper ridge breaks down and upper disturbance moves into the region. - Rain chances will be further enhanced into the weekend as a frontal boundary moves across the North Gulf States. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Prologue... Per satellite imagery and RAP analysis, Polo is moving overtop the Baja Peninsula. Already feeling influence from upper shortwave, Polo has lost most of its structure and it`s opening up into a trof. This feature is then still set to swing up into the lower Plains states where it will spin out beneath upper shortwave over the coming days... Southerly flow will be established as sfc high moves to the east. This fetch will create for rather humid conditions for the coming days, before the ultimate influence from the aforementioned weather features move in. Preceding ridge is already in place over the northwest Gulf and it will remain there through late Wednesday. Only further compression will tighten its grasp on our weather pattern, halting most rain showers from squeezing in over our area. Low level flow strengthens markedly later in the day Wednesday which could generate some weak surface based showers in the afternoon. The ridge breaks apart into Thursday, finally opening the door for influence from the shortwave moving across the south central US to take over. Expect an increase in showers and storms Thursday to the end of the work week. 11 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Some light shallow fog is being observed in a few locations at this hour and may intermittently drop visibilities to 4-6SM until 13Z. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter through the period along with light southeasterly winds. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Tropical Cyclone Polo is moving inland tonight. An upper level disturbance will carry this feature into the Lower Plains. Winds will increase from tonight through the end of the week on a tightening pressure gradient between the south Plains disturbance and high pressure over the northwest Gulf. The ridge breaks down late Wednesday into Thursday, allowing for widespread showers to develop over coastal waters. Upper disturbance moving across the south US will send several waves of precipitation over waters from Thursday through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026 Surface high pressure moving to the east of the region will restore southerly winds and so low level moisture will continue its return to the area over the coming days. Upper level high pressure will persist over the region until later Wednesday, stopping rain showers from an upper level disturbance from reaching the region. This high pressure ridge breaks down late Wednesday allowing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to spread into the area from Thursday to the end of the week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...66