Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
996 FXUS64 KLCH 301212 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 712 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated rain chances continue through Sunday as a weak frontal boundary interacts with deep tropical moisture. - Storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to nuisance street flooding. - Below normal temperatures expected through much of next week as a series of weak frontal boundaries pushes through the region and reinforce a drier/cooler atmosphere. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Outside of a few patches of drizzle, the radarscope is clear early this morning as a quasistationary frontal boundary continues to bisect the region roughly along the HWY 190 corridor. The latest several hours of CAMS guidance have performed poorly in showing significant convective redevelopment that has not yet materialized. A few isolated showers could develop over the next few hours, but the majority of activity doesn`t seem likely to initialize until late this morning through this afternoon. Calm winds across the region may allow for some patchy early morning fog development especially across areas that saw significant rainfall yesterday. Parts of lower acadiana and southeast Louisiana are already reporting fog at this hour. Any fog that develops should dissipate by 14Z. The frontal boundary and deep tropical moisture in place across the region (2.19 PWAT on the 00Z KLCH sounding) will support another day of widespread thunderstorm development with any of these capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to nuisance street flooding. The entire region remains in WPC`s marginal risk for excessive rainfall today through Monday. Convection should wane through the evening similar to Friday although a couple of storms could last into the late night. The boundary and the deepest moisture will ooze to the coast by Sunday keeping the highest PoPs confined to southeast Texas and coastal portions of southwest and south central Louisiana with only isolated storms possible as far north as Alexandria. Similar conditions expected Monday as the boundary remains stalled near the coast. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Another, more progressive, shortwave will swing through the area Tuesday pushing the stationary front further offshore and advecting in a slightly drier airmass. This will largely bring precipitation chances to an end by Wednesday. Another weak, reinforcing boundary pushes through the region Thursday. Dewpoints will fall into the mid to upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday allowing overnight lows to fall into the mid to upper 60s for the first time since June 1. Following the secondary frontal boundary Thursday, NBM advertises lower 60s across central Louisiana and interior parts of Southeast Texas which would be about 10 degrees below normal should it verify (although nowhere close to records which are in the mid 50s for the first week of September across cenla). Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 711 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today due to boundary situated near the region. Expect periods of low CIGs, low VIS due to rainfall and volatile winds in and near storms. Conditions will improve with sundown. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Scattered showers and storms will redevelop across the coastal waters today ahead of a meandering frontal boundary. This front will slide toward the coast later in the day where it will stall continuing to serve as a focus for storm development Sunday through Monday. Winds will turn offshore from Saturday afternoon through the middle of next week as the frontal boundary moves off the coast and into the Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will develop again today through Monday in response to a slowly advancing frontal boundary bisecting the region. The boundary will push through the area Saturday afternoon turning light winds out of the north through mid next week pulling some slightly drier air into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A reinforcing frontal boundary will move through the region Thursday maintaining the drier air through the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 69 88 68 / 30 10 20 10 LCH 87 73 87 73 / 70 30 50 30 LFT 87 73 88 73 / 70 10 40 20 BPT 89 74 87 73 / 80 40 60 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...11