Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
661 FXUS64 KLCH 132325 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 625 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will decrease and temperatures increase from today through the midweek as high pressure expands its influence in the region. - Maximum heat indices should range from 101 to 107F each day. No Heat Advisories have been issued at this time, but may become necessary. - Marine winds and seas will increase starting in the midweek as an upper level disturbance moves into the northeast Gulf. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Another typical Summertime day has unfolded in the region with scattered showers and storms along the seabreeze and warm conditions. Temps are sitting in the 80s for those with nearby rainfall while those further inland or away from showers hovering in the lower 90s. A few sporadic observations have flirted with heat indices in the 104 to 106F range over the last hour, a consequence of slow sfc mixing. These obs aren`t lasting long, though, as dewpoints are beginning to fall. Some areas may briefly warm over the 108F advisory threshold, but this is neither widespread nor long-lasting enough to warrant throwing out an advisory for the rest of the day. These considerations are informing the decision for an advisory on Monday. Upper level high pressure moving in over the region from today through the coming week will drive temps up slightly and diminish rain chances, both helping to nudge outdoor heat indices upwards. Looking towards the surface airmass, low level high is forecast to move into the northeastern seaboard tonight into Monday. Low to mid level winds turn to the northeast in response, cutting off Gulf flow and introducing a drier continental airmass to the north Gulf. It`s not a big sweeping change of airmasses, PWATs drop to around 1.7 to 1.9 inch range and midlevel RH values from 80 to roughly 65 percent. Still humid but less so than we`ve had. Forecast soundings also paint a distinct inverted V at the sfc; all pointing to increased mixing to keep indices in check. As of now, max indices from 101 to 106F are expected and no Heat Advisory will be issued at this time. If coming guidance adjusts its expectations of heat distribution, an advisory may be issued for portions of the area. Much of the same expected Tuesday and beyond as conditions get warmer and drier each day. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 A few lingering showers and storms are present across the region. Overnight conditions will be VFR with the light and variable winds. Tomorrow afternoon additional convection will be possible with daytime heating. && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 High pressure ridging over the region will keep conditions mostly dry with mild onshore winds. Scattered nocturnal showers and storms will be possible each evening through the week. Winds and seas will start to see an increasing fetch towards the middle to end of the week as an upper disturbance moves into the northeast Gulf. Small craft advisories may be needed as early as Wednesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Some scattered showers and weak storms have been moving across areas this afternoon. These will meander around until sundown. Occasional cloud to ground lightning will be possible and may exacerbate fire conditions. Daytime mixing as resulted in sporadic and random wind directions and gusts. High pressure will increase in strength from today through the midweek diminishing rain chances and increasing temperatures each day. Dry air will also begin moving back into the region, mixing down and lowering daytime minimum RH values to 35 to 50 percent each day. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...14