335
FXUS64 KLCH 171151
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Excessive Rain Outlook is outlined for eastern
  portions of the forecast area today while minor river flooding
  is expected to persist over the next few days across portions of
  Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease
  slightly into the midweek ahead, but daily scattered
  thundershowers remain possible through Friday

- Temperatures will rise into the low toward the mid 90s by the
  end of the work week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Precipitation will remain in the forecast throughout the short term
outlook, however, chances for excessive rainfall appear to decrease
slightly. More specifically, the axis of favorable moisture
convergence is expected to shift further east toward the MS Delta.

An upper level trough discussed in previous overnight packages has
now moved east of the MS Delta with the approaching secondary
shortwave over the Southern Plains also advancing east today. This
incoming shortwave carries a positive tilt that phases closer to
stronger northern stream pattern over the Missouri Valley. Should be
noted that while SETX carries less chances for rainfall, there still
exist daily opportunities for isolated or clustered
thundershowers- some of which are still capable of laying down
efficient rainfall rates while PWATs still trend above the 75th
percentile per observed soundings. Mid to upper level tropospheric
moisture is forecast to decrease into the mid week which will
further limit risks of excessive rainfall in this region. That
decrease in available moisture will also be noted over south
central LA through the mid week. Daily high temperatures will
remain toward 90F which is seasonably normal for this time of
year. That said, minimum RH values during the daylight hours will
generally stay above 60% making apparent temperatures few several
degrees warmer but below any heat related advisory criteria for
now.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

High pressure across the western Atlantic is forecast to build over
Bermuda with ridging also strengthening westward across the NW
Gulf waters. Additionally an upper level ridge will develop
across Midwest Sunday before expanding further through the
beginning of the upcoming work week. There are signals of more
notable dry layers and inversions with above 700mb, however, the
proximity to the marine environment under steady SE`ly fetch will
still allow conditional afternoon thundershowers. From a
climatological standpoint, it would be encouraged to take
advantage periods of dry weather for outdoor chores / activities
as the latest 6-10 day CPC outlook still suggests roughly a 30-40%
chance above normal precipitation locally across SETX and SWLA.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas of morning BR to diminish over next hour or two. Scattered
convection is expected within the vicinity of all terminals across
the forecast area. Signals in guidance show BPT and areas along
SETX to have slightly lesser coverage. Outside of TS, conditions
should generally prevail VFR. Do note gusty winds have been noted
in earlier morning convection across LFT suggesting periodic
strong variable thunderstorm gusts are possible through this
afternoon.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet. 20-60nm waters off High
Island, Tx to Cameron, LA may range toward 2 and 4 feet with
slight strengthening of southerly flow across the NW Gulf on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  73  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
LCH  89  77  89  77 /  40  10  40  10
LFT  89  75  89  75 /  70  20  60  10
BPT  89  77  89  77 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30