844
FXUS64 KLCH 161929
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor river flooding is expected to persist over the next few days
  across portions of Sabine and Neches

- Moderate rainfall chances today are forecast to decrease
  slightly into the midweek ahead, but daily scattered
  thundershowers remain possible through Friday

- Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s midweek

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Our upper-level pattern remains steady, with a trough digging
across the central Gulf Coast. While the trough is situated
overhead, our wet pattern will persist, bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms today and Tuesday. PWAT values remain
elevate, above the 90th percentile, supporting a Marginal risk of
flash flooding today and possibility again tomorrow. This trough
will eventually begin to shift eastward as a shortwave propagates
across the central Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. At the
same time, ridging will begin to build in, promoting more
subsidence and leading to reduced shower activity by midweek.

Due to widespread cloud cover, high temperatures have struggled
to climb out of the 80s. However, we cant rule out a few 90s
across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

During the second half of the week, convection will be primarily
diurnally driven, with less organized activity and more airmass
thunderstorms developing along boundaries. As the ridge continues
to build overhead, rain chances will drop to more typical
summertime levels of 30 to 50% with showers mainly in the
afternoon. Showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, generally
dissipating after sunset.

With reduced cloud cover, temperatures will begin to rise into the
low 90s along the coast, with a few degrees higher possible
farther inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Low ceilings are present across the region along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. VFR to MVFR conditions will persist
through the rest of day. Near convection VIS and CIGs will drop to
IFR / LIFR conditions for short periods. After sunset convection
will fade with VFR conditions present until sunrise when new
convection will begin to impact the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet with.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  91  73  92 /  20  40   0  50
LCH  77  89  77  89 /  10  50   0  50
LFT  75  88  75  89 /  10  70  10  70
BPT  75  89  77  89 /  10  40   0  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14