835
FXUS64 KLCH 161729
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper ridge overhead will limit cloud cover and thunderstorm activity
  this afternoon allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid
  to upper 90s.

- No changes to the previously issued Flash Flood Watch which
  remains in effect for south central Louisiana Thursday through
  Saturday.

- Heavy rainfall from a tropical disturbance will have the
  potential to produce rainfall totals of 1-6 inches Thursday
  through Saturday with amounts of up to 12 inches possible in a
  few locations across south central Louisiana.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Scattered showers over the coastal waters early this afternoon are
the first of those associated with a weak tropical disturbance
moving over the northeastern gulf. These will continue through the
with some of these showers approaching the south central Louisiana
coast by this evening. Rain will gradually overspread the region
Thursday. While some banding is possible, the very disorganized
nature of the storm lends itself more to a "blob" structure which is
better news from a flood risk perspective. Significant organization
of the disturbance is becoming less and less likely with each
passing hour and NBM QPF probs have come down somewhat in terms of
QPF totals especially on the upper end. The range is now generally
from 2-6 inches with the 10% probability of exceedance in the 6-8
inch range (compared to close to 15 at this time yesterday). The
distribution hasn`t changed much with the highest totals still
expected across lower acadiana. The flood watch issued yesterday
still covers this well and no changes were made to either spatial
or temporal extent.

The tropical low will continue to push through the region Friday
into Saturday morning with guidance in decent agreement on the
deepest tropical moisture lifting off to the north by late Saturday
afternoon.

Jones


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

PoPs will drop below climatological normals by Sunday as weak
ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface build into the
region in place of the dissipating low. This ridge will meander
across the region through Tuesday keeping PoPs low and afternoon
highs above seasonal normals. By the middle of next week, guidance
is resolving another tropical looking low, similar to the one on
it`s way this week, developing in the vicinity of the Florida
peninsula and working into the eastern gulf which may spell
another period of wet weather through the latter half of next
week.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the day and overnight. Fair
weather cu this afternoon will be gradually overrun by increasing
high clouds in advance of a tropical low approaching the area from
the east. This low will begin to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across LFT and ARA Thursday morning before gradually
spreading into LCH, AEX and BPT just beyond this taf period.
Light southwesterly winds will prevail this afternoon, becoming
variable overnight. Winds will turn northwesterly Thursday morning
as the influence of the low begins to be felt, but remain light.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Weak high pressure across the northwestern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through tonight afternoon. Winds
will turn offshore Thursday as a weak tropical disturbance
approaches the coastal waters from the east before turning back
onshore Friday. There is a 40% chance of this disturbance
strengthening into a tropical depression. Regardless of
development, widespread rain is expected Thursday through
Saturday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid 70s this
afternoon with minimum RH values ranging from 40- 60%. Widespread
rain is expected Thursday through Saturday as a tropical
disturbance moves across the region. Generally light winds will
become northwesterly Thursday before turning back out of the south
Friday as the low lifts north of the area. Lower precipitation
chances are expected by Sunday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  95  74  90 /   0  40  30  90
LCH  76  91  76  87 /  10  60  70  90
LFT  77  88  75  85 /  30  90  70  90
BPT  74  91  74  88 /  10  30  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for
     LAZ032-033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66