959
FXUS64 KLCH 190459
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minor river flooding is expected to persist over the next
  several days.

- Daily isolated to scattered thundershowers will remain possible
  through the weekend with chances increasing early next week.

- Max temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s by the end of
  the work week with min temps hovering in the mid 70s range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Isolated to scattered showers are streaming northward across the
entire CWA this afternoon, with an increase in coverage expected
for the duration of the afternoon. With this being diurnally
driven, this will taper shortly after sunset.

Currently there is a weak upper trough that is over the region. To
the west of that there is an upper ridge centered over Baja CA and
to the east another ridge centered over the Atlantic Coast of FL
with ridging extending into the Gulf. All three of these will
shift, with the trough and Baja high shifting NE / eastward with
heights building over the Gulf.

Tomorrow could be a bit more active with another shortwave moving
through, however timing will be similar to today with convective
activity starting in the late morning hours then tapering in the
evening. By Friday, the aforementioned upper ridge to the west of us
will spread over the Southern Plains. This will help suppress
diurnal convection, but a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

This weekend we will see a slight uptick in temperatures as a
ridge moves directly overhead. On Saturday, it will help in
limiting PoPs, with only an isolated chance at best save for parts
of Acadiana that could see higher PoPs that afternoon. By Sunday
and going into the work week, the ridge will move NEwrd and
meander over the Ohio River Valley. A weakness aloft will spread
westward over the Gulf. That plus the the already moist airmass
over us will lead to a return of higher PoPs, with parts of the
CWA possibly seeing scattered to numerous showers and storms.

Temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover and rain chances,
however it will hover at or above climatological normals for this
time period. It will feel quite summery, though, thanks to the
nonstop flow of Gulf moisture. Each day, max heat indices will be
in the 100-106 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Light winds and scattered high clouds continue through the
remainder of the overnight period areawide. Patchy fog has begun
to develop at AEX and will persist through sunrise, while at
LFT/ARA guidance is now hinting at the possibility of some patchy
BR near sunrise as well. Overall, this fog should be minimal and
burn off quickly, with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter
through the forecast period. Another round of isolated to
scattered afternoon convection is expected today, with the best
chance for precip expected to exist over Acadiana and AEX. Still
coverage should be fairly light, similarly to the last couple of
days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Conditions remain calm across the coastal waters with light to
moderate onshore flow last for the next several days. Combined
seas will remain between 1 and 3 feet. 20-60nm waters off High
Island, Tx to Cameron, LA may range toward 2 and 4 feet with
slight strengthening of southerly flow across the NW Gulf this
afternoon before lighter surface winds return tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Light to moderate southerly winds will remain throughout the
remainder of the work week with isolated to scattered rainfall
chances expected in the afternoon to evening hours. Min RH, which
will briefly occur during late afternoon will remain above mid
50% through the forecast period. Generally, these conditions will
help keep fire weather concerns low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  92  73 /  20  10  40  10
LCH  90  77  90  76 /  20   0  40  10
LFT  90  75  90  75 /  40  10  60  10
BPT  90  76  90  76 /  20   0  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17