Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
023 FXUS64 KLCH 311727 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat continues through Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and maximum heat indices of 102-109F. - A weak frontal boundary will move through the region Saturday night into Sunday bringing a 30-60% chance of rain. Some slightly drier air may work into the region Sunday, but both high and low temperatures will remain largely unchanged. - A few, diurnally driven, afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop each day next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Friday afternoon surface analysis shows weak high pressure over the northern Gulf while a frontal system is in the Plains. Aloft, ridging extends from the Pacific coast to the Southern Plains, while a shortwave trough is moving into the Great Lakes region. Ridging aloft will bring about another hot and dry afternoon today, with highs reaching into the mid to upper 90s. A few spots, particularly along the coast, may touch heat advisory criteria briefly this afternoon, but overall heat indices should top out in the mid-100s. Moving into the weekend, upper level ridging begins to retrograde westward tonight into tomorrow, while the aforementioned shortwave trough dives southeast across the Midwest and evolves into a broader scale trough over the E CONUS by early Sunday. The evolution of this upper trough will give a surface front/low pressure system a push south across the Plains and into the lower MS Valley over the weekend. This boundary is expected to make its way into the Ark-La- Tex tomorrow afternoon and to the coast by Sunday morning. While this will mean very little for us temperature wise, with highs still reaching into the mid-90s both Sat and Sun, it will bring a bit of slightly drier air with a brief north/northwest wind shift along with a small chance for showers and storms late Sat into Sun. Any repreive from the dog days of summer that this front is able to bring will be short lived, with SW/S surface winds returning on Monday as the front becomes increasingly washed out overhead through early next week. At the same time, upper level troughing will begin to weaken and retreat northward, losing its hold over the E CONUS by late Monday. In its wake, broad flat ridging will again build across the southern CONUS. With somewhat weak ridging overhead, a few afternoon diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible each day next week, but coverage will be fairly isolated to widely scattered at best. With little day to day change in the synoptic pattern next week, afternoon highs will generally range from the mid to upper 90s each day with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Scattered cloud deck around 3000-4000ft will continue to stream across the region through the afternoon, while winds remain mainly W to SW around 10kts. Tonight, winds relax while skies become mostly clear apart from some high clouds. Tomorrow, winds strengthen a bit through mid-morning with gusts around 15-20kts expected into the afternoon ahead of a weak boundary that will drop into the region tomorrow night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Light southwesterly winds and low seas will continue through tonight. A weak boundary will approach from the north tomorrow, before moving through the coastal waters early Sunday. As this boundary approaches it will tighten the pressure gradient slightly, allowing winds to increase to around 15kts with gusts to around 20kts throughout tomorrow. By Sat night into Sun winds increase a bit further with sustained 15-20kts and gusts to 20-25kts. The boundary will also increase thunderstorm chances late Sat through Sun. An exercise caution statement has been issued for tomorrow, and a SCA may briefly be needed Sat night/Sun morning. Light southerly flow becomes reestablished Monday through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hot and humid conditions will continue through Saturday. Rain chances will increase Saturday night into Sunday as an upper level trough and weak frontal boundary approach the area. A brief period of northwesterly winds are expected Sunday bringing some slightly drier air into the region. Minimum RH`s Sunday afternoon are expected to be in the 35-50% range. Winds will turn back out of the south Sunday night into Monday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day next week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...17