270
FXUS64 KLCH 032329
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level low will move a cold front across this afternoon
  and tonight with showers and thunderstorms likely. There will be
  a potential for some strong storms with gusty winds and locally
  heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures will be more seasonable behind the front with a
  secondary upper level disturbance bringing a chance of showers
  on Thursday.

- A cold front with more of a Canadian origin will move through at
  the end of the week bringing chilly night time temperatures for
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

An upper level trough and associated surface low moving eastward
across the central CONUS will be the primary drivers of today`s
potential severe weather and rainfall threats. Ahead of this
system, persistent southerly to southeasterly flow has maintained
a warm and humid airmass across the forecast area, with dewpoints
generally in the 70s. The approaching cold front will provide the
focus for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening, with the boundary progressing eastward across the CWA
into the overnight hours.

Some isolated showers and thunderstorms have already developed
ahead of the main frontal convection, which is currently
progressing across East Texas into western Louisiana. Instability
overall could remain somewhat limited in our area, as widespread
cloud cover has persisted across much of it this morning. However,
cloud cover has begun to break up just a bit over the past few
hours, allowing for some heating that could support increasing
instability through this afternoon. The strongest forcing and
shear are expected to remain north of the area, as currently
observed across SHVs CWA where multiple tornado warnings have been
issued as of 18Z. Even with that said, sufficient instability and
shear may support a few stronger storms as far south as portions
of coastal SETX and SWLA. A better overall picture of this will
come with this afternoons special sounding.

In addition to the severe weather potential, locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible. PWAT values from the 12Z sounding
are already above the daily maximum climatology, suggesting an
environment favorable for efficient rainfall production. WPC
continues to highlight the area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for
excessive rainfall, with coverage generally aligned with the
SWODY1. Relatively fast storm motions should help limit the
duration of heavy rainfall at any one location; however, training
along portions of the frontal zone could result in locally higher
rainfall totals. Overall, the flash flood threat appears limited,
but brief flooding of urban and poor drainage areas remains
possible.

Behind the front, winds will shift to the northwest as a
noticeably drier airmass spreads across the region Wednesday.
Temperatures will trend lower compared to today, with afternoon
highs returning closer to seasonal normals. Lingering cloud cover
and any residual showers should gradually diminish as the boundary
moves farther east and subsidence develops in its wake.

For Thursday, forecast confidence remains somewhat low, but is
increasing regarding another upper level disturbance that is
expected to weaken as it approaches the region. Southerly flow may
briefly return ahead of this feature, allowing moisture to
gradually increase. Depending on the timing and strength of the
disturbance, isolated to scattered showers may develop Thursday
into Friday, ahead of another cold front. Rainfall amounts
continue to vary from run to run, with NBM precipitation
exceedance probabilities indicating a 10 to 40% chance of
receiving measurable (0.25 inches) rainfall across the southern
portion of the CWA. At this time, widespread rainfall is not
expected, but this system will bear watching as additional
rainfall could provide some relief from ongoing drought
conditions. Conversely, drier conditions and slightly stronger
winds ahead of the next frontal passage could support an increase
in fire weather concerns.

Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will support dry
conditions through the weekend and into early next week. Overnight
temperatures should become noticeably cooler, with lows
potentially falling into the 40s across much of the CWA. Some
locations across CenLA could approach the upper 30s if the airmass
and radiational cooling conditions are favorable. Afternoon
temperatures will also remain cooler than earlier in the week.
Confidence in the weekend temperature forecast is moderate, as
conditions will depend on the timing and strength of the second
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A line of convection currently situated from near BPT to AEX will
continue to shift east across the region this evening into
tonight, exiting Acadiana near midnight. Near this line,
reductions in VIS, occasional gusty winds, and MVFR/IFR ceilings
can be expected. Away from the line, a mixture of MVFR and VFR
ceilings are expected both ahead of and behind the convection
through the overnight hours. Near sunrise tomorrow, all sites
should have returned to VFR with VFR CIGs and a light mainly NW
wind expected throughout tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Flow has become more southerly this morning ahead of a cold front,
with isolated to scattered showers. The front will cross the
coastal waters this evening into early Wednesday morning and will
be accompanied by a line of thunderstorms, particularly further
west where some of the storms may be strong. A period of 5-15 kt
northerly flow will then set up in the wake of the front through
Wednesday, before light onshore flow returns for the end of the
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A warm and humid airmass remains in place with light southeast
flow. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
during the day Tuesday before a cold front brings a line of
showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong, across the
CWA this afternoon and evening. Chances for a wetting rain
(greater than 0.25 inches) increase from south to north, ranging
from 10 percent for lower Acadiana to 90 percent for central
Louisiana. In the wake of this system, a slightly drier airmass
will settle into the region, with afternoon minimum RH around
45-55 percent.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87
AVIATION...17