444
FXUS64 KLCH 142331
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level trough will continue to support elevated
  precipitation chances across SE TX tomorrow, where a Marginal
  Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place

- Little to no precipitation is expected Thursday through early
  next week as high pressure builds into the region. Afternoon
  highs will climb into the mid 90s with afternoon heat indices
  between 102-109.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Midday surface analysis shows a weak front stalled across the Ark-La-
Tex while high pressure extends across the northern Gulf from near
Florida. Aloft, strong ridging dominates the northern CONUS while an
inverted trough is overhead. The combination of the stalled front,
the upper level trough, and a very moisture rich atmosphere overhead
has again resulted in a wet start to the day, with many areas having
seen 3-6" of rain earlier this morning. Fortunately, convection has
finally begun to taper off over the last couple of hours, leaving
behind mostly cloudy skies. We could see a bit more isolated
activity through this afternoon, especially near the coast, but for
the majority of us this drying trend should continue. Mostly cloudy
skies through the afternoon will hold highs in the low to mid 80s
for one more day, before we begin to warm up through the second half
of the week.

Tomorrow, the aforementioned upper level trough will retrograde to
the west, becoming situated over TX, while the stalled front slowly
meanders northward. With the loss of additional support for
convection, POPs will begin to trend downward tomorrow. The
exception to this may be over SE TX, where the influence of the
upper trough may still be enough to initiate widespread convection
by the mid-morning. Some of this will likely spread across LA
through the afternoon, but coverage should be much more reminiscent
of our typical afternoon summertime convection vs. the last few
days. With this in mind, WPC has outlined a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall across our SE TX counties tomorrow.

Thursday through the end of the forecast period, high pressure
builds overhead at both the surface and aloft, bringing an end to
the wet pattern and shifting us towards a period of hot and dry
weather. Thursday will likely be the last day we could see any
measurable rainfall through at least early next week, and even then
chances are fairly low (15-25% at best). Instead, it will be plenty
of sunshine across the forecast area, and as you might imagine this
will allow temperatures to climb. Thursday and Friday, highs range
from the low to mid 90s, with max heat indices in the 100-106 degree
range. Saturday and beyond, temps climb further, with highs in the
mid to upper 90s and max heat indices in the 101-109 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A line of thunderstorms are presently ongoing approximately 20
miles N of AEX, but with little motion, these are not expected to
impact the terminal before dissipating over the next couple of
hours. Elsewhere precipitation has come to an end with no
additional development expected tonight.

VFR high clouds will continue to stream across all terminals
tonight into Wednesday morning along with light, variable winds.
Some light, patchy fog cannot be ruled out between 10-14Z
Wednesday morning due to saturated grounds, but probability of
visibilities falling to under 6SM are only 20-30%. Any fog that
manages to develop will dissipate no later than 14Z with VFR
conditions prevailing thereafter through the day.

A few thunderstorms are expected to develop after 16Z,
potentially causing brief visibility restrictions due to heavy
rainfall between 16-22Z with storms largely dissipated by 22Z.
Away from storms, light southerly winds will prevail.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Light southerly flow and low seas are expected to continue through
the week as weak surface high pressure is centered over the
northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing and
will continue through this afternoon, with another round of showers
and storms expected Wednesday afternoon. Winds and seas will be
higher near the thunderstorms. Dry conditions will prevail Thursday
through the weekend as high pressure builds over the northern
gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Light southerly winds will prevail through the week and weekend
keeping dewpoints in the 70s and minimum relative humidity in the 60
to 70 percent range. Rain chances decrease Wednesday although
afternoon thunderstorms will still be possible. Ridging will build
across the northern gulf Thursday through early next week dropping
precipitation chances to near zero. No significant fire weather
concerns are expected.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17
AVIATION...66