084
FXUS64 KLCH 300536
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1136 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will move across late tonight and early
  Sunday with possibility of strong thunderstorms and locally
  heavy rain. There is a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather and
  Excessive Rainfall.

- A cold, brisk, and cloudy day can be expected behind the front
  on Sunday.

- A coastal low will develop on Monday ahead of another cold front
  and will bring a chance for locally heavy rainfall through
  Monday night. There will be a Marginal Risk for Excessive
  Rainfall on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A long wave trough extends across the southern US with an embedded
shortwave trough located to our east in Texas. At the surface, a
cold front is approaching our area while a large "blob" of Gulf
moisture is being pulled to north by a surface low in northeast
Texas. With the shortwave enhancing convection ahead of and along
the front we can expect an active night with a Marginal Risk (1/5)
for severe weather and a Marginal Risk (1/4) for flash flooding.

Since the flash flooding is considered the main threat we will
start there. PWATs are well above normal values and are above the
75th percentile with the 00Z sounding showing a value of 1.2
inches. While this is slightly below model expectations it is a
massive jump from 24 hours ago when PWAT values were only at 0.3
inches. To further highlight how aggressive the moisture return
has been low-level and mid-level RH values jumped from ~25% to
~80% in the same timeframe. With an atmosphere as primed as ours
flash flooding is a major concern especially in areas where heavy
rain will be training. Tonight we can expect widespread 1-3 inches
of rain with local amounts up to 5 inches possible.

For the severe threat, low-level shear, mid-level shear, and mid-
level lapse rates are all favorable for severe weather. The main
limiting factor will be a lack of CAPE as MUCAPE on our sounding
is only around 300 J/kg. CAMs do show a slight increase with CAPE
overnight between 500 to 1000 J/kg. Which will be enough to
support thunderstorms especially with favorable upper air support
and the front to provide the initial lift.

Behind the front, we will see a brisk north wind bring a dry and
cold arctic airmass. With a brief period of dry weather. For the
rest of the weekend and going into next week highs will be in the
60s near the coast and in the 50s inland. Similarly lows will be
warmer near the coast and in the 30s farther inland.

A second round of heavy rain and active weather will occur on
Monday and Tuesday as a coastal low will form. High moisture
content, with PWATs in the 90th percentile will will once again
increase the risk for flash flooding area wide with a Marginal
Risk (1/4) on Monday. Rainfall totals are trending for higher with
totals expected to be between 2 and 4 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

During the middle of the week we will have a lull in the weather
as more dry, cold air moves in from behind the front. We could
drop below freezing north of I-10 Wednesday night but otherwise
lows will be near seasonal norms. The chilly but pleasant weather
will be short lived as the next we will more heavy rain on
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The approaching front will bring low CIGs and VIS with MVFR to IFR
conditions through the night. Near thunderstorms winds will be
faster and chaotic with IFR/LIFR CIGs and VIS. Behind the front
low CIGs will keep MVFR conditions while winds will shift, coming
from the north around 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Moderate onshore flow will give way to strong offshore flow as a
cold front moves offshore Sunday afternoon. Along the front heavy
rain and thunderstorms will reduce visibility with chaotic winds.
Behind the front winds will quickly pick up and a Small Craft
Advisory will be in effect through Monday afternoon for sustained
winds over 20 knots. Gusts between 25 and 30 knots can`t be ruled
out either. Combined seas will quickly rise with the winds peaking
at 5 feet in the outer coastal waters on Monday. By Monday night
winds and waves will both subside as the front washes out.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A pair of low pressure systems and their associated cold fronts
will bring much needed soaking rain tonight and again on Monday.
Rainfall totals will be between 1 and 5 inches between the two
systems with locally higher amounts. This won`t be enough to break
the drought but will help reduce the amount of fuels available to
burn. Behind both fronts will be gusty cold and dry air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  51  39  48 /  80  70  40  90
LCH  54  61  45  55 /  80  90  30  80
LFT  54  58  47  58 /  60  90  40  80
BPT  52  59  46  55 /  80  80  30  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14