312
FXUS64 KLCH 241123
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

High pressure continues to be the main feature in our short-term
forecast. High pressure is centered over south Louisiana and is
slowly moving east. A second high, at 500 mb, is centered over
Texas, with its associated ridge extending to the east. This
pattern will keep our temperatures hot and humid, with highs
reaching the mid- to upper 90s and heat index values well into
the triple digits. Acadiana, the interior portions of Texas, and
central Louisiana will hit heat advisory criteria of 108 this
afternoon. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool today, as the heat
will be dangerous! Pulse showers and storms will form in the
afternoon, with more rain in Acadiana, where the ridge is weaker.
Rain chances remain on the low side, with PoPs around 10 to 30
percent.

Tuesday will be a repeat of today, with hot temperatures and
isolated afternoon showers. But on Wednesday, our pattern starts
to change as the ridge aloft begins to erode. Because of the
lowering of the heights, northwest flow will begin to set up with
a shortwave trough moving into the area at the same time. This
feature will bring widespread showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms. Thankfully, neither CAPE nor shear values look
impressive, so organized thunderstorms don`t look likely right
now.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

At the surface, the pattern will continue to see weak high
pressure ridging across the northern Gulf coast that will allow for
low level southerly flow. This flow will bring in plenty of Gulf
moisture with daily PWAT readings at or above 2 inches and Mean
Relative Humidity from 1000-500 above 60 percent.

Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will be centered off to the west
with a weakness over the forecast area, and this should allow
daytime heating to work with the rich Gulf moisture for a decent
chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms for Thursday to begin to
period.

The upper level ridge tries to build toward the east over the
weekend, however consensus shows that the upper ridge will be rather
flat and weak. Therefore, with high moisture values, a daily dose of
showers and storms should continue through the weekend.

Conditions away from the convection will be hot and very humid each
day. Locations that do not receive any afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity or cooling convective outflows, will see max
afternoon heat index readings around 105 degrees, with some possibly
reaching or exceeding the heat advisory criteria of 108 degrees.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at most TAF sites through the forecast
period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible at ARA
and LFT with VCTS in the afternoon. Winds will be light and
variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Light onshore flow will continue through the week across the
coastal waters. Waves will also be low, with a height between 1
and 4 feet, with the higher waves farther offshore. Coastal
flooding remains a concern with tides above the 1.5-foot MHHW
threshold.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  74  96  75 /  30  10  20  10
LCH  93  77  93  77 /  20   0  20   0
LFT  95  78  94  77 /  30  10  40   0
BPT  94  77  94  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-152>154-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-
     074-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ180-259-260.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14