Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
364 FXUS64 KLCH 112344 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 544 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Fire Danger Statement will be in effect Tuesday as a result of low RH and antecedent dry conditions making dry fuels easily ignitable. - Temperatures over the period will become well above normal with little to no rain chances until this weekend into early next work week. - Rain returns this weekend the chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 With the passage of the front, we are looking at calm and warming conditions through the end of the week. Surface analysis now has the surface high to our east, with surface obs supporting that with light southerly flow across the region. With steady onshore flow, we will be seeing temperatures and dew points rise across the region, with highs breaking back into the 80s by Thursday. Despite the increase in moisture at the surface, aloft we will remain dry as ridging builds overhead. The subsidence from this ridge will be strong, as it is in the climatological 90th percentile of strength for mid-November. This, along with no forcing mechanisms, will keep us dry through the end of the week. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 Warm and humid conditions will continue for the rest of the week, with highs in the low 80s and dew points in the 60s. Our pattern will remain steady for the rest of the work week. Going into the weekend, we will see a lot more uncertainty as an upper-level low is expected to dig south into the Four Corners region before its associated cold front moves across the region on Sunday night. Models have consistently been pushing the timing of the system later in the forecast. For example, yesterdays forecast package had the front moving through on Saturday night, but the current model trends don`t have the front coming through until Sunday or Monday. The good news is with a slower-moving front, we can expect higher rainfall totals, with an 80 percent chance for area-wide rain and the chance for a wetting rain (0.25 in) over 50 percent. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions to prevail past the end of this forecast period with winds mainly out of the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 44 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 56 77 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 49 76 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 56 79 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...87