Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
983 FXUS64 KLCH 031758 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1258 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Some drier air will continue over the area through Monday with lower rain chances, and with lower humidity will help keep the heat risk in check. - By mid week the forecast area will be between an upper level ridge centered over the southwest U.S. and an upper level trough to the east with a break in the subtropical ridge. This is expected to bring rather typical summertime conditions with a chance for scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day with the higher rain chances over lower Acadiana. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 The surface frontal system looks to be located this afternoon from just north of the Houston area then snaking along the coast of southwest Louisiana before into the lower Atchafalaya Basin. Frontal system looks to be about stationary at this point. Water vapor analysis and GOES data shows some drier air has moved in with PWAT values over a majority of the forecast area in the 1.5 to 1.75 range which is below the climo mean and nearing the 25th percentile, whereas near the coast into lower Acadiana PWAT is noted above the 1.75 mark and nearing 2 inches. This delineation is also noted at the surface with reliable observations showing upper 60s to lower 70s dew points north of the frontal boundary and mid to upper 70s along and south of it. CU field is forming with the daytime heating, however from looking out the window, satellite and radar data, and pilot reports, the cu is not building much in the vertical. Therefore, not expecting much in the way of significant shower activity for the remainder of the afternoon, expect where the better moisture resides along and south of the front, and any interactions with the seabreeze. Monday looks like a very similar day as today was with again climatologically drier air over the forecast area to keep heat risk in check and with the best chance to see any shower activity near the frontal boundary. On Tuesday, the frontal boundary begins to become more diffuse and some better moisture begins to push back in. Still, do not see any more of a focus to storm activity besides daytime heating and sea breeze interaction with the left over frontal boundary and thus higher pops will remain near the coast into lower Acadiana. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Forecast area will be noted between an upper level ridge building in from the southwest U.S. and an upper level trough as a result of a break in the subtropical ridge to the east over the northeast Gulf into the southeast U.S. This pattern should allow for mainly typical summertime weather. There will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. The higher chances will be noted along the Atchafalaya Basin and lower Acadiana closer to the upper level trough and where the better moisture will be found. Lower pops will be noted over southeast Texas and western central Louisiana closer the ridge and drier air. The temperatures for the most part also look to be near climo norm and without any deep Gulf moisture moving into the region, the dew points should also be near climo keeping the heat index and heat risk in check. Rua && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Low clouds over Acadiana has finally scattered out with VFR at all terminals. For the remainder of the afternoon, fair weather cu for the most part will form however any ceilings will be at VFR levels. Most of the cu will not be able to form into significant shower activity, with the exception of near the coast and any seabreeze that tries to move in. Therefore, did mention VCSH at KBPT/KARA after 03/21z. Any convection, along with the cu field will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating and VFR conditions are expected into night. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A surface front will remain nearly stationary right along the coast and with a weak pressure pattern over the coastal waters, mainly light westerly to offshore winds and low seas are expected. There will still be a chance for showers and thunderstorms south of front. By mid week, lower pressure will form over the Plains with a weak surface high over the northern Gulf. This will allow for light onshore winds to return. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Somewhat drier air will remain over a majority of the fire weather forecast area into Monday with very low rain chances and lower humidity. Better moisture gradually returns by mid week with an increase in humidity and typical summertime scattered thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 93 70 95 / 0 10 0 30 LCH 72 93 74 93 / 10 10 10 40 LFT 72 92 74 93 / 10 20 10 50 BPT 74 93 74 93 / 10 20 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07