Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
743 FXUS64 KLCH 292350 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 650 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low level southerly flow will become reestablished early this week causing moisture to increase. This will lead to more humid conditions along with temperatures that are already above seasonal norms. - Next chance for rain can be expected late Wednesday or early Thursday as the upper ridge breaks down and upper disturbance moves into the region. - Rain chances will be further enhanced into the weekend as a frontal boundary moves across the North Gulf States. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a cut-off low beginning to move south into the desert Southwest. In Baja California, Hurricane Polo has made its first landfall of today and is now in the Gulf of California. At the surface, high pressure is building in the eastern Gulf and will soon cause our winds to shift from the south. For the rest of today and most of Wednesday, our weather pattern will remain consistent, though with the addition of a few more afternoon showers and storms. As the southern flow gets established, the cut-off low will move across the southern US and is forecasted to be near the OK/TX border by Wednesday. As the low moves closer to the Gulf Coast, the pressure gradient force will increase and winds will begin to surge from the south. This southerly flow will cause our moisture values to skyrocket, with IVT and PWAT values above the 90th percentile. From Friday through the weekend, PWAT values will be especially high, even for the Gulf Coast, with mean values from the LREF around 2.3 inches; even the 10th percentile shows values above 2 inches. During the second half of the week and through the weekend, a slow-moving cold front will cause widespread rain, with amounts between 2 and 3 inches expected across the region. While this wetting rain will be welcome, especially in areas dealing with drought, there is a concern for flash flooding. It appears likely that we will stay on the warm side of the front through the weekend, experiencing overcast, warm, and wet weather. The WPC has placed us under a Marginal or Slight risk for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Based on current trends, another ERO will likely be needed on Sunday. Anyone with outdoor plans should keep a close eye on the forecast, as weather impacts are likely. Temperatures remain stubbornly high, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s for today and Thursday. For Friday and the weekend, an increase in cloud cover will limit our afternoon highs to the low 90s. Overnight lows will be higher than average, in the mid to upper 70s. At the start of next week, we will be on the other side of the front, and cold air advection will drop our highs into the 80s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Mainly VFR conditions to persist for the TAF sites this cycle. With the return of moisture, we could see some areas of patchy fog early tomorrow morning, however whatever forms will be quick to dissipate shortly after sunrise. Additionally, some sites, mainly BPT could see isolated showers in the afternoon. With overall confidence in convection being low at this moment, it was not mentioned for the other sites. Otherwise this is a wind forecast. Winds will become less gusty the later in the evening we get, however sustained winds will still be a bit elevated. Late tomorrow morning, they will pick up once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 An increase in winds tonight has led to the issuance of an Exercise Caution statement for coastal waters. As the cut-off low moves closer to the coast, winds will increase, making a Small Craft Advisory increasingly likely. With the increased winds on Thursday, coastal flooding will also be a concern. From Friday through the weekend, widespread rain and storms will impact coastal waters, reducing visibility and causing locally higher winds and waves. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 High pressure will keep conditions dry today and Wednesday. Rain chances will increase on Thursday and remain elevated throughout the weekend. Widespread wetting rain is expected and will help reduce fire danger as we move into October. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...14 AVIATION...87