Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
689 FXUS64 KLCH 141104 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 604 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm weather anticipated through mid week, with moisture returning throughout Thursday as onshore flow becomes reestablished - The next chance of rain will be Friday and Saturday as an upper trough and cold front approach from the west. For now, rain chances remain rather low, and will largely depend on moisture return through the late week && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Surface high pressure extends from Canada to the Gulf Coast, while aloft large high pressure ridge dominates the NW Gulf Coast extending from Mexico to the Ohio River Valley. 00Z sounding at LCH shows a very dry airmass throughout the column, with a PWAT of 0.98" which is just above the 25th percentile according to SPC climo. Surface and upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast area into Thursday, keeping dry conditions in place through the short term. While dry conditions prevail, temperatures will run above average through the next several days with highs in the upper 80s. Overnight, lows will be near normal through the next few nights, in the upper 50s/low 60s, with overnight lows increasing into the mid 60s/low 70s Thurs night/Fri morning as moisture starts to return. Until then, the dry airmass overhead and the amplifying drought conditions across much of the CWA will again result in an elevated risk for wildfires today and tomorrow. Thankfully, Thurs does look to bring a transition towards a wetter pattern so conditions will begin to improve through the end of the week in regards to fire danger. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 After a somewhat slow start to moisture return on Thurs, things begin to pick up on Fri as slug of tropical moisture moves inland off the Gulf, with PWATs surging towards the 90th percentile. Aloft, a SWrly flow will become established late Thurs into Fri as upper ridging shifts towards the East Coast and troughing takes shape over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure shifts east as well, allowing onshore flow to become established across the CWA. Small rain chances return to the forecast throughout the day Friday, particularly across SE TX and parts of adjacent SW LA. Away from convection, a bit more cloud cover and elevated dewpoints will hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Moving into the weekend, upper level troughing shifts across the Plains and towards the Midwest Sat into Sun, while an associated cold front sweeps across the Plains and eventually through the forecast area from Sat through Sun. On Sat, rain chances increase further area-wide as moisture continues to pool overhead and upper level support increases. We could eventually see an severe weather outlook with this system over the coming days, depending on where the best support sets up. For now it looks to be more to our north (where a D6 Slight Risk is outlined by SPC), but this will be something to watch over the coming days. Rain chances remain elevated into Sunday until the passage of the cold front which is expected to occur Sun afternoon/evening. Unfortunately, this front looks to be fairly similar to the last, bringing just a small shot of dry air and no real cool down. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Some shallow patchy ground fog will be possible until shortly after sunrise or until about 14/14z with brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the region will bring dry conditions and VFR. Winds will be mainly from the northeast at less than 10 knots. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 NE to E winds around 5-12 kts will continue into Thursday, along with seas around 1-3 feet. Winds shift more east to southeast throughout Thursday while increasing slightly, with a SE to S flow then prevailing into Saturday until the passage of the next front. Rain chances will be below 10% into Thurs, increasing Thurs PM through Sun as moisture pools overhead and support for convection increases. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Min RH values in the 25-35% range are again expected today and tomorrow, resulting in elevated fire danger. Wind will be rather light and mainly out of the NE through this period. Thurs, winds become SErly and moisture begins to return quickly as we head towards the weekend. Moisture pools overhead Fri into Sat, with min RH values surging into the 50-70% range. Rain chances ramp up Fri through Sun as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 88 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 87 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 88 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...07