686
FXUS64 KLIX 051109
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
609 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- A weak tropical wave will continue to slowly approach the LA
  coast today. This is leading to strong winds and will drive rich
  Gulf moisture north into the area today through the weekend.

- Strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds will continue today
  leading to hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal
  flooding. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of
  the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect
  for all coastal areas except surrounding the tidal lakes through
  Friday.

- Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widespread
  light to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday
  through the weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of
  the 10/12 corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing
  locally heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Looking at satellite and radar right now and you may be thinking
"Wait I thought we would see numerous showers and thunderstorms
the next few days as that weak tropical wave approaches the coast.
Did y`all pull a fast one on us?" Well, can`t fault you for
thinking that. Radar over SELA and southern MS and all the way
well south of our coastal waters is absolutely quiet. Not one
little shower over our area or moving towards it. Checking
satellite and yep even that shows little in the way of cloud
cover. In fact the biggest blow up of convection, and it isn`t
even that big, is over 400 miles southeast of the mouth of the
river. The actual sfc wave at 7z was is a little more than 100
miles south of the mouth. Checking in on the TPW sensor on GOES19
and you can clearly see much drier air over the northeastern 3rd
of the CWA but there is a wedge of much drier air over our coastal
waters. A much deep surge of moisture is just to the south of that
and is working north and there is abundant moisture over
southwestern LA and along the coast of central-LA. The
combination of that much drier pocket of air (TPW is only
indicating PWs around 1.6 which is a good 4-5 tenths lower than
the two airmasses to the northwest and southeast of it. If is
because of that wedge of drier air that we aren`t seeing the
typical nocturnal convection we see with more tropical like
environments. However, this looks to be temporary. All indications
are that the blob of rich Gulf moisture to our south will
continue to slide north and should begin to move into coastal
sections of the CWA around midday. With that convection will be
much slower to get going today with initiation likely b/t 18 and
21z. At the same time our sfc wave should be moving in over
coastal SELA this afternoon as well. LL winds will respond
especially south of coastal MS. This increase in the LL
convergence along with the deeper moisture moving in will finally
get better coverage over the area. with the greatest potential
east of I-55.

Convection looks like it will taper off for the most part
overnight, which again in a more typical tropical system normally
we would see convection consolidate and not outright dissipate.
That said there will likely still be a few showers through the
night. After the sun comes up, our little wave should be be inland
and probably half way through the CWA. After sunrise we will
quickly start to heat up and given the surface wave will still be
over the area and abundant moisture in place, numerous to
widespread convection is expected to develop much earlier and
spread faster. One concern Saturday is the potential for locally
heavy rain. A few more things will be in place Saturday compared
to today and the biggest difference is instability. We will heat
up a little more efficiently causing the environment to be much
more unstable than today. In addition We will be under a weird
almost split flow type jet. This places the entire area under
decent upper level diffluence which that in conjunction with the
higher instability will lead to more efficient rainfall. Again
the location with the greatest potential for locally heavy rain
appears to be east of I-55 and we hate to day it but possibly
peaking over portions of coastal MS and just west of the Pearl
River over portions of the North and South shores. This includes
all of the coastal MS urban areas, but even locations like Slidell
and New Orleans could see periods of moderate to intense
rainfall.

PoPs will remain elevated on Sunday but overall we should see a
slight tick down in coverage and intensity. The better support
will be pulling north and east of the region and even though PWs
will be slightly lower they are still hovering around 2" so not
necessarily drier air but drier when compared to the possible
2.15-2.2" PWs we will see Saturday. We may also see a touch more
subsidence in the mid lvls as the eastern Gulf ridge tries to
spread west while the mid lvl disturbance that is currently
entering TX from Mexico will be pulling away lifting across the
NE/KS/MO/IA borders. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

On Monday evening, an upper ridge will be centered over the northern
Gulf with an extension northeastward into the upper Ohio River
Valley. Shortwaves will be over Illinois, Kansas and California in
southwesterly upper flow.

The upper ridge is expected to build northwestward into Texas
Wednesday and Thursday, with an inverted trough or easterly wave
moving into the eastern Gulf and approaching our waters by Thursday.
The GFS operational runs bring this wave across the area late
Thursday, while the 12z ECMWF operational keeps it further south
over the Gulf.

Models are in pretty good agreement about the weather being mostly
dry Monday night through Tuesday night, with the GFS solution being
a bit wetter beyond that point. The current forecast and NBM numbers
would be a bit more supportive of the GFS scenario.

With the mostly dry scenario for Tuesday, highs are likely to top
out around 90 in a good portion of the area, and perhaps a degree or
two above that. Wednesday and Thursday could also get that warm,
especially if the trough/wave doesn`t directly impact us. A wetter
solution would likely mean mid 80s for highs. /RW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

All terminals remain in VFR status at this time but will likely
begin to slowly see cigs lower as the richer moisture starts to
push in. We are currently seeing a few very light showers develop
along coastal areas but these are fairly small and light and not
persisting much. We should begin to see this activity slowly pick
up around 16/16z. GPT, NEW, MSY, and HUM would see impacts first
as -SHRA begin to develop. Between 19/22z convection should begin
to build and increase in coverage impacting ASD and HDC, BTR and
MCB will likely be the last two terminals that see impacts.
Overall most of the activity should be in the form of -SHRA but
cigs will likely drop to around 2200-2800 while convection is over
the terminal. That said there will be a few embedded storms./CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A tight pressure gradient remains in place between a weak wave
approaching the LA coast and high pressure over the southeastern
states. This continues to lead to strong easterly winds which
will become more east-southeasterly today. Sustained winds of 20
to 25 knots have been and will continue to occur over all of the
coastal waters through today before finally beginning to relax
overnight tonight. We are also seeing occasional to frequent gusts
above 30 knots. Seas are generally ranging from 4 to 8 feet with
the higher seas in the outer waters. We will continue to see some
improvement from a wind and sea standpoint over the weekend but
showers and thunderstorms will likely impact most of the coastal
water through Saturday. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-
     070-076>078-080-082-084-087-091-093-095-097-098.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ529-
     531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ531>536-
     541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB