265
FXUS64 KLIX 161712
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1212 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- A drier pattern is expected through at least the weekend. The
  primary concern will be increasing heat, with heat indices
  approaching advisory criteria from tomorrow onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

An upper low was over west Texas this morning, stuck within a ridge
covering much of the country. There was also a weak trough over
Georgia and Florida.  At the surface, high pressure was centered
from near Jackson to our southeastern coastal waters. Any
significant cloud cover this morning was primarily at cirrus
level. Closest significant rainfall was on the Florida coast and
over Texas. Temperatures at noon were mainly in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

The only appreciable change in the pattern through the weekend will
be that the Florida-Georgia trough will deepen slightly, and may
drift into the extreme northeast Gulf. This would generally mean
little day to day change in the local weather scenario. If
there`s going to be any organized precipitation, it would likely
be limited to far eastern portions of the area...the Mississippi
coastal counties, . and probably delayed until late in the day.
For the most part, temperatures should run in the middle 90s
through the weekend, but wouldn`t be surprised to see a few spots
in the upper 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid and upper 70s.

While some forecasts have been mentioning 100 degrees over the
weekend, we`re keeping just short of that currently for a few
reasons. The ground remains fairly wet from recent rains in most
areas, making it slower to heat up. Secondly, the area that has
guidance showing 100 degrees, the Mississippi coast, is generally
only the hottest area this time of year when north winds are strong
enough (usually close to 10 mph) to overcome the sea breeze cycle.
Third, forecast soundings generally indicate convective temperatures
in the mid 90s. Storm development would also cut off heating before
100 is reached.

We`ll continue to assess the potential for issuance of Heat Advisory
products, but none are being issued at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Medium range models eventually take the weak upper low over the
northeast Gulf and shear it out to the northeast along the Atlantic
Coast. We`ll remain on the southeast end of the upper ridge to our
northwest. A weak frontal boundary could sink as far south as
Interstate 20 by midweek, but probably not into our area. Any threat
of thunderstorms is likely to be limited to coastal areas on the sea
breeze boundary.

This should generally keep high pressure over the area, with only
low end PoPs expected during the afternoon hours into the middle of
next week. This will keep high temperatures in the middle and upper
90s into the middle of next week. If anyone is going to reach 100
degrees next week, it`d probably be Monday or Tuesday, when there`s
at least a small chance of that occurring. Lows will be in the 70s,
although wouldn`t be surprised to see a few urban areas remain above
80 degrees overnight (New Orleans, Gulfport/Biloxi) on at least one
night. Heat related product issuances remain possible, if not likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions at forecast issuance time with the exception of
KBTR, where they are reporting BKN020. Expect their cloud bases to
lift above FL030. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the forecast period. Any threat of thunderstorms is too low to
mention in the forecast at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With the pressure gradient rather weak, daily winds will tend toward
a diurnal cycle of offshore winds during the overnight and morning
hours and onshore in the afternoon. Potentially enough wind to
justify Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines tomorrow night, but
won`t issue for now unless neighboring offices opt for one.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW