Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
751 FXUS64 KLIX 031841 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1241 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1126 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 - Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle and late part of the week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas. - Nightly fog development is possible through early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Ridging over most of the Gulf this morning with a shortwave over western Colorado. High pressure at the surface from New England into much of the Gulf, with a frontal boundary generally north of Interstate 40. Most of the earlier fog had dissipated or lifted, but a pretty healthy cumulus field developed shortly afterward. Late morning temperatures ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the 60s. The main issue over the next 36 hours is whether we get low clouds or fog overnight. We`re in more of an advective fog pattern at this point. Most, but not all, of the guidance has backed off on the threat of low visibilities, with low ceilings being the main result. If there are favored areas for fog, it would be the Mississippi coast tonight, as well as over the cooler waters of the Mississippi River. With the moisture levels continuing to increase, especially over areas west of Interstate 55, isolated to scattered showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will remain in the mid 60s, with highs tomorrow upper 70s to lower 80s. Not enough spread in the guidance to make significant adjustments. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Upper ridging is expected to remain from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf through the weekend. That ridging will weaken over the weekend, however, as a new ridge builds along the Texas and Mexico coast. The frontal boundary to our north will attempt to make it into the local area, but likely never reach the area. It will, however, be close enough to enhance chances for precipitation somewhat, especially over northern portions of the area on Friday and Saturday. Not going to be a drought breaker by any means, but northwest portions of the area could see an inch or so of rain. Still a fair amount of fog potential with the southerly flow continuing, but we`ll monitor that on a day to day basis. No indications of a frontal passage until perhaps the middle or end of next week (3/11-13), so the extreme warmth will remain in place. We won`t quite get into record territory on high temperatures or warmest minimum temperatures, but we won`t be far off the records. The ECMWF and GFS operational temperature numbers are pretty close, and the ECMWF ensemble from the overnight run showed very little spread in their numbers as well, so it is a pretty high confidence forecast through Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Scattered to broken clouds around FL030 at forecast issuance time. Cloud bases could lift a little more over the next few hours. With a moist southerly flow continuing for the next few days, it`s likely we will continue to see low ceilings during the overnight hours through mid morning. Could see MVFR ceilings shortly after sunset, with IFR ceilings likely from about 06z onward. Can`t entirely eliminate the threat of LIFR conditions, but the "best" forecast right now keeps us at IFR. Improvement to MVFR ceilings should occur around 15-16z Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026 Nearshore water temperatures continue to warm up, with most water temperature observations in the mid and upper 60s this afternoon. The exception is the waters of the Mississippi River, where water temperatures are in the 50s (52F at Carrolton Gauge, 54F at Pilottown and 59F at Pilot Station). That would signal a continuing threat for fog development over the river during the overnight hours the next few nights. While most of the stretch of the river isn`t in a marine zone, mariners on the river need to be aware of the threat. Lake Pontchartrain water temperatures look to be in the mid 60s (New Canal), so there`s at least some threat, but confidence not high enough to justify an advisory. Winds likely to remain around 15 knots or a little less over most of the waters, so no indications of reaching Small Craft Advisory levels through the period. Won`t rule out Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines on occasion if winds are a little stronger than anticipated. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW