860
FXUS64 KLIX 120645
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
145 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs
  in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index
  values generally running in the low 100s to near 110 through the
  end of the work week and then possibly climbing into the lower
  110`s this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The temperature is already rising and the heat will be on through
the rest of the week, next weekend, and into next week. The mid
lvl ridge is already becoming centered over the north-central Gulf
with ridging dominating pretty much all across the 4 corners, the
southern Plains, and Lower MS Valley. The ridge for the next few
days will not be anything out of the ordinary but as we move into
the end of the week it will build and by late Friday mid lvl hghts
will at least be up to 597dm possibly topping out around 599dm
just to our north this weekend. With the ridge building like that
you can pretty much kiss rain good bye through much of the weekend
with the exception being today. The ridge will still be weak
enough today while we still have quite a bit of moisture available
with PWs still around 2". The best locations for any storms will
be areas of southeast LA mainly along and south of I-10 especially
just south and southwest of the tidal lakes where the seabreeze
and lake breeze have the best chance of colliding. After today the
rain is likely done through at least this weekend.

Heat, with the ridge building look for temperatures to continue to
tick up and with that there is a good chance we will eventually need
heat headlines but as for today things will continue to be very
borderline. Main reason is the NBM continues to underestimate the
amount of mixing. This is driving the dewpoints down into the lower
70s and thus keeping the heat index in the lower to mid 100s for
much of the area and with that holding off on any advisory at this
moment. Can`t rule out isolated locations getting higher and in all
honesty there will be some locations that get into the upper 100s
but that is likely isolated locations confined around the tidal
lakes and river basins.

As for the lack of rain. If you haven`t noticed it is starting to
get rather crunchy out there. after what felt like more than half a
years worth of rain in about 2 months we have quickly seen the hose
shutoff. The lack of rain and well above normal temperatures over
that time is quickly pushing the area towards drought concerns and
possibly even fire weather concerns. This isn`t a big issue yet but
if we got another week or two with limited rain impacts could
quickly start to develop and accelerate. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

By Sunday the dome of high pressure aloft begins to retrograde
over the Red River Valley. Moisture quality will be a lot better
with PWATs increasing from around 1.5" to over 2.0" for most of
the CWFA, which may be enough to increase rain chances and
coverage just a bit to round out the weekend. That said, a likely
later convective initiation time will still allow much of the CWFA
to warm into the middle and upper 90s and with higher humidity
values, expect the need for heat headlines to be there.

Going into the new workweek there will still remain a low-end chance
of afternoon convection across the region, but the aforementioned
ridge tries to work its way back over the region.
By now, with the added low level moisture, slightly more limited
late afternoon mixing, and higher heights, temperatures will
approach 100F with "feels like" temperatures nearing upper end
advisory if not warning criteria Monday and Tuesday next week. GFS
has certainly been more bullish with the hotter temperatures. Again,
could have some late afternoon isolated convection, but before
initiation, headline thresholds may already be met for several hours
prior. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions currently in place at all terminals and this will
likely continue for the foreseeable future, especially after this
afternoon. Today may be the last best chance for any TSRA impacts
and that is likely confined to NEW, MSY, and HUM. These locations
have PROB30 in their TAFS during the afternoon hours. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Generally benign marine conditions through the forecast period
with high pressure mostly being in control from start to finish.
Isolated nightly convection will be possible, especially over the
offshore waters where locally higher winds and seas may reside
around showers and storms with perhaps a waterspout or two.
Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10
knots outside of convection. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...RDF