399
FXUS64 KLIX 041849
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
149 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- A weak tropical wave in the central Gulf will continue to slowly
  approach the LA coast this weekend. This is leading to strong
  winds and will drive rich Gulf moisture north into the area
  Friday through the weekend.

- Strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds will continue
  through Friday leading to hazardous marine conditions and minor
  coastal flooding. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of
  the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for
  all coastal areas except surrounding the tidal lakes through Friday.

- Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widespread
  light to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday
  through the weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of
  the 10/12 corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing
  locally heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The old frontal boundary the moved through has become rather
diffuse and WPC isn`t even highlighting much of a thermal boundary
anymore. However, there is still a bit of a difference between our
more moist locations across the far southwest to our warmer and
drier locations across the east and northeast closer to the H5
ridge centered over the Sequatchie/Tennessee River Valleys...which
is keeping rainfall mostly in check this afternoon for about 80
percent of the CWFA.

Going into tonight eyes at least at the surface shift to our south
as a weak inverted trough (weak tropical wave) begins to move
north and west toward the coast this weekend. As it does, our
region will be on the wetter side of this feature with continued
onshore/southeasterly flow into the region. With the surface high
over the southern states, breezy conditions will also be possible
again on Friday, especially along the immediate coastal areas.
With the plume of moisture arriving, the best QPF signal is
occuring with the diurnal cycle during peak heating both Friday
and through the upcoming weekend. We have nudged POPs up Saturday
a good bit with the MS Gulf Coast and southeast Louisiana
parishes expecting to see the higher rainfall amounts. Widespread
1-3 with some locally heavier amounts up the 6 inches are possible
if storms train over the same region. Thought about freshwater
Flood headlines again, but given the lack of confidence in the
heavier rainfall and coverage, decided to continue messaging
localized flooding at this juncture vs widespread.

As the surface trough continues downstream the tropical moisture
will continue to filter in, but the pressure gradient will begin
to relax a bit, especially going into late Saturday and Sunday.
This should help mitigate additional need for Coastal Flood
Headlines with the winds lessening a bit. However, did continue
the advisory outside of the tidal lakes through Friday keeping in
mind the best potential will be during times of high tide.
Otherwise, temperatures will be at or below average through much
of the short term due to the higher POPs across the region. Mostly
upper 70s or lower 80s will be common. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The long term appears to be much drier as we head into a pattern
change. An H5 592 DAM ridge will move over the northern Gulf and
eventually strengthen as it heads into central Oklahoma by
Tuesday. This feature will transition us out of a largely wet
period as we see in the short term. That said, with the POPs/QPF
signal decreasing (although still NOT zero) as well as higher
heights and thicknesses, temperatures will be on the increase
with most locations away from the immediate coast warming into the
lower 90s with heat index values approaching 100 degrees in a few
spots by Wednesday. (Frye)


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions anticipated through the cycle with perhaps a
bit more reductions expected toward the last one third of the
cycle as convection starts to develop by Friday late morning and
afternoon. Otherwise, over the next 12-18 hours HUM will have the
best chance for SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. Also, surface winds will
be elevated both today and then again on Friday. Overnight, some
improvement as most terminals decouple. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A tight pressure gradient is in place between a weak wave over the
central Gulf and high pressure over the southeastern states is
leading to strong easterly winds with solidly sustained winds of 20
to 25 knots over all of the coastal waters. Gusts above 30 knots are
occurring and expected to occur over the next day or two. Seas are
still climbing with the outer waters already around 7 feet. These
hazardous conditions will continue through Friday before finally
seeing winds start to veer around to more southeasterly and then
southerly this weekend as that tropical wave moves towards the
Louisiana coast Friday and inland on Saturday. Going into this
weekend some improvement takes place, but winds and seas will remain
moderate. We will see an increase in storms Friday and Saturday,
especially east of the Mississippi River Delta and that will lead to
locally higher winds and seas. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078-
     091-093-095-097.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ529-531>536-
     541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ531>536-541-
     543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF