591
FXUS64 KLIX 030554
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule
  for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  each afternoon during the middle and late part of the week.
  While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier
  storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas.

- Nightly fog development is expected through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

As a persistent southeast flow ushers in very warm and humid air
from the Gulf, the prospect of multiple rounds of fog will
continue to be the primary forecast concern. Dewpoints have been
on the rise tonight with values increasing a good 5 degrees over
the course of the evening hours. This has allowed dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area. Boundary
layer flow is a bit elevated currently at around 15 knots, and the
warm air advection over the cooler waters has largely translated
into a broad shield of low stratus over the eastern half of the
CWA this evening. However, the wind field does look to decrease
slightly overnight, and this could allow for the stratus deck to
drop down to the surface creating an area of dense fog across the
Northshore and Mississippi Coast. Given this concern, a dense fog
advisory is in effect for these areas from 3 am through 9 am.

The very warm and humid airmass will continue to dominate the
region on the western periphery of a broad deep layer ridge
centered over the western Atlantic through Thursday night.
Temperatures will remain well above average through the period
with highs easily climbing into the 70s and lower 80s each
afternoon. A few locations may even rise into the mid 80s over the
weekend. Overnight lows will only cool into the low to mid 60s
each night. Water temperatures in the sounds, lakes, and offshore
waters in the mid 60s. As overnight lows cool toward the
dewpoint and water temperature, the potential for sea fog to form
offshore will remain high for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
nights. Light onshore flow of around 10 knots will help to
transport this offshore sea fog onshore with the greatest impacts
for locations along the coast and near the shores of the tidal
lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

This weekend into early next week, a region of enhanced forcing
associated with favorable jet dynamics will become established
over a region stretching from eastern Texas through the Akrlatex
and into the Midwest. Confidence is increasing that the deepest
moisture axis will remain displaced to the west and north of the
forecast area. However, enough instability from daytime highs
climbing into the low to mid 80s over inland areas will support
the development of scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms
starting Friday afternoon and continuing each afternoon
thereafter. Winds will remain around 10 knots from the southeast through
the weekend and into early next week. These winds will continue to
advect the warm and humid air over the cooler nearshore waters,
so conditions will remain favorable for advection fog to impact
the region each night through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A broad shield of low stratus with ceilings of 300 to 500 feet
will continue to overspread the area the next few hours, and all
of the terminals will be in IFR status by 08z. Winds remain
somewhat elevated now, but these winds are projected to decrease
slightly before daybreak. This will allow for some lower
visibilities of 1 to 3 miles to impact the terminals as the
stratus builds down a bit. These conditions will persist through
at least 15z due to the advective component of the fog and low
stratus. After 15z, enough daytime heating and boundary layer
mixing will develop to clear the fog and lift the stratus deck to
between 2500 and 3500 feet. These conditions will persist through
the remainder of the afternoon hours. However, after 00z, another
round of low stratus will begin to overspread the terminals. By
06z, nearly all of the terminals will be in IFR status again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The potential for sea fog to impact the coastal waters will
increase through the week as a persistent southeast wind of 10 to 15
knots ushers in a much warmer and more humid airmass over the cooler
nearshore waters. Fog conditions could start as early as tonight,
but they will be more likely from Tuesday night through the
weekend. This fog may turn dense at times and impact navigational
operations. Outside of the fog concern, the lighter winds will
keep seas in check at 4 feet or less.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ039-071-
     076-079>082.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-
     534-536.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ077-083-
     084-086-087.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-
     536.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG