439
FXUS64 KLIX 012138 CCA
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
338 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Persistent easterly winds will continue to to push water towards
  the coast leading to minor coastal flooding at high tide tonight.
  A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to
  get minor coastal flooding.

- Next system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will
  begin during the Tuesday impacting election day while stronger
  storms will be possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday
  with the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Last night was rough. Tried to highlight some of the ingredients and
the setup which could lead to very efficient thunderstorms and
isolated heavy rain however, at no point did it cross my mind that
we could possibly get up 12-17" in Pearl River County much less the
5-8" around the immediate Southshore. In addition it looked like the
potential for heavy rain would have been a little more over our
northwest but it didn`t work out that way. There was another
isolated storm that produced over 12" of rain last night near
Oakdale between Lafayette and Alexandria, so there was very heavy
rain to our west-northwest just outside of our outlook area. The
other highly unusual aspect of this that wasn`t that there was one
storm that led to these extreme rainfall amounts, it was that most
of the area struggled to receive anything more than a few hundredths.
Only a handful of locations saw 0.25-0.5" but the fact that there
were not one, not two, but multiple yet very isolated locations that
saw multiple inches of rain with 2 locations that saw more than 12"
of rain is quite rare. This is what is making the forecast for the
remainder of the afternoon and evening difficult.

We don`t have the same set up but any means. The PW`s are lower
around 1.6-1.7 but that is still around the 90th percentile for this
time of the year however, we are missing one key feature. The jet is
not in the right spot. Last night we were in the prime location
(LFQ) leading to strong diffluence aloft. We don`t have that right
now and it won`t improve over night. That said there is the
potential for isolated heavy rain. By no means are we expecting
anything similar to last night but one or two storms anchored
leading to 3 to 5 inches is not out of the question. The rain
chances should drop off considerably late this evening and
overnight. As for tomorrow we should be drier with s/w ridging over
the area but since we won`t completely clear out the moisture we
could have isolated to scattered light showers after we start to
warm up. May also have a little help from isentropic lift.

The main concern is the system Tuesday and Tuesday night. This
system is already coming onshore. The models are already coming into
better agreement again and I expect to see them continue to converge
on a solid solution over the next 12-24 hours. The biggest shift in
the models is the potential for strong to severe storms does appear
to be much lower than previously thought and even the amount of rain
anticipated with this time system looks much lower. Main issue is
that models now are in agreement that the bulk of the dynamics will
remain well north of here and the trough will be more broad as it
moves through the Lower MS Valley. Like was mentioned yesterday the
mid level jet max that merges with the L/W trough does cause the
system to pull farther north. The broader trough means the trough
axis moves in and passes through the area Wednesday morning. This is
slower than previously advertised and this is also more broad lift
and not as strong as a sharper negatively tilted trough would have
caused. The sfc low is well north of the area with a weak elongated
front moving in overnight and early Wednesday. This all suggest a
lower potential for strong/severe storms however it does not remove
the threat completely. Instability will be lacking especially is we
have a good bit of cloud cover and even light showers Tuesday. This
will keep the area from recovering. This doesn`t lead to steep lapse
rates either especially given the less dynamic system we will have
to work with. Any LL jet that tries to develop will be well north
placing us at the base if not even farther south from the base of
the LL jet. One positive aspect is the jet. We could still feel the
possible effects of a coupled jet like structure with enhanced
diffluence and divergence aloft especially over the northwestern
portions of the CWA. And it is that locations that has the best
chance of seeing strong storms.

SPC has a Marginal Risk in place for the far northwest and it will
mainly be with any storms associated with the front overnight. WPC
also has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for the northwest
3rd of the CWA but given the lack of support now and weak front we
are looking at rainfall totals with this system likely below 0.5"
for much with the area with isolated locations possibly up to 1-
1.5". /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

After our system on Tuesday night/Wednesday the forecast gets a
little quieter and overall the medium range guidance is in decent
agreement. The continuity within the models hasn`t been the
greatest but it has just mainly been some timing and strength
issues the consistency between the models has actually not been
that bad and to be honest over the last 3-4 days they have had
better consistency between them for Wednesday and into next
weekend compared to yesterday through Tuesday night. You would
think it would be the opposite a lot of times but given the change
in the pattern and rather potent east Pac trough that isn`t
unreasonable. Typical models struggle with pattern changes,
usually timing but also strength at times. However, once the
pattern does transition or the models think it has they tend to
come back into better agreement. All that to say yeah confidence
is a lot higher in the forecast in hours 72 to 144 than in the 1st
72 hrs (last night was just an example of how difficult the first
3-6 hours can be).

Once the L/W trough moves through Wednesday we will actually move
under more zonal flow thanks to another disturbance quickly on the
heels of this one. By Wednesday afternoon it will already be moving
east across the 4 corners and into the southern Plains early
Thursday. This disturbance will quickly surge east-southeast through
the Lower MS Valley Thursday night and off the east coast by Friday
afternoon/evening. At the surface high pressure builds in slowly
behind the front with a weak reinforcing cold front early Friday.
Our front Wednesday won`t bring much in the way of cold air but it
will help to drop the dewpoint down a touch. The front Friday will
bring more dry air and some slightly cooler air in time for the
weekend.

Previous model solutions showed the possibility of rain late next
weekend but latest shows the weekend remaining dry since we will
never be able to recover. Models do start to diverge next weekend
mainly timing and strength but they do show another strong
disturbance digging into through the Plains this weekend and even
with the differences in depth of how far the system digs they all
still still show a drier scenario with possibly another reinforcing
cold front late this weekend. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs are currently impacting most terminals but the
low clouds should begin to scatter out some this afternoon.
That said terminals from BTR to NEW and southwest look like they
will be dealing with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Terminals will likely move into VFR status are times this afternoon
but expect MVFR and even IFR cigs this evening and overnight. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters
through Monday night before becoming more southeasterly ahead of a
cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Winds will generally be
around 10-15 knots however we can not rule out a few periods of
winds around 15-20 knots especially in the open waters. Winds will
briefly become offshore Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday before
becoming more light and variable as high pressure builds in. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible at times over the coastal waters
until after the front moves through. /CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ070-
     076-078.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ086.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB