806
FXUS64 KLIX 012328
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
628 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Scattered showers and a few storms have been drifting across the
  area today. One or two storms could become strong, producing
  gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy
  rainfall. These cells should die out late this afternoon into
  the evening hours.

- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area
  Friday through Sunday. While specific rainfall totals are still
  uncertain, heavy rain and at least localized flash flooding
  will be a threat. Residents should continue to monitor the
  forecast for updates regarding this threat.

- Larger than normal tide ranges and onshore flow will produce
  minor coastal flooding on southeast facing shore lines during
  the high tide cycle the next several nights.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Within the last hour, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for
most southeast facing shorelines for tonight`s high tide cycle.
Larger than normal tide ranges and 10 to 15 knots of onshore flow
are likely to produce water levels around 1 foot above normally
dry ground on those shorelines during the high tide cycle tonight.
Also the potential for similar water levels the next few nights
during the high tide cycle, but will hold off on issuing beyond
tonight, as some concern winds may be lighter tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

I have good news and bad news. Through the weekend we should be
seeing temperatures moderate and drop into the seasonable, early
fall range. The bad news is that the temperature drop will be
partly due to rain through Sunday night and maybe into Monday
morning. I guess we can`t win them all.

The current set up has us stuck between a low/trough over the
southwestern plains and a high to our east. Regional winds are
out of the southeast, circulating around the high, and bringing
Gulf moisture into the area. As the front associated with the
low/trough moves into the area it will carry tropical moisture
currently associated with Pacific activity into the area. Between
these two moisture sources we are going to see maximum and perhaps
record values of PW for this time of year, on the order of 2.6
inches.

While we are certain of widespread rain Saturday and Sunday, I
don`t believe the weekend will be a total washout. The way the
systems are moving, there will be lulls in the rain. However, we
can`t say when and where those lulls will occur. Likewise on the
heavy side, there are likely to be periods and areas of heavier
rain. So, while we are forecasting total average rain amounts
between 3-5 inches there could be isolated areas of heavier rain
with accumulations in the 6+ inch range. Generally speaking, the
lower amounts will be in the northwest side of the area and the
higher amounts to the east. The rainfall intensity is also an
issue. With the lulls and surges, we could see instantaneous rates
that are high enough to cause minor flash flooding. This flooding
would be an impact in areas of slow drainage such as underpasses.
Also, associated with any given storm there may be gusty winds
and some lightning.

Along with the discussion of hazards, I should mention that
conditions are not at all favorable for severe weather. Tornadoes,
hail, and high winds are not on the table for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Monday through Wednesday sees the front discussed in the short
term discussion pushed into the Gulf and becoming mostly
stationary and a shallow upper trough just to our north. This will
set us up with just enough moisture and lift to give us around a
30% chance for afternoon rains. Daytime highs will be in the low
80s, but it will be very humid.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Currently VFR conditions at all terminals. There are a few -SHRA
around, but no indications of any lightning in the CWA over the
last 4 hours, and little or no lightning expected overnight. Any
flight restrictions due to cloud cover overnight should be rather
limited, but KMCB could see some visibility issues (MVFR).

With moisture levels increasing tomorrow, should see some SCT-BKN
clouds with bases around FL025. Threat for TSRA should increase
some by 17-18z tomorrow, with most terminals seeing at least brief
flight restrictions during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A tightening pressure gradient will keep southeast winds elevated
at 10 to 15 knots through the afternoon and at or just over 15
knots tonight creating some choppy conditions in the waters. Winds
will drop back to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow and remain in that
range through Sunday. A cold front will then slip through the
waters Sunday night and winds will shift to the northeast for
Monday and Tuesday. Wind speeds will also rise back to 15 to 20
knots and seas will increase to 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 4 to 6
feet offshore creating another round of choppy seas.

Showers and some thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage
Thursday and especially Friday through the weekend as a tropical
wave moves through the northern gulf and interacts with the
approaching cold front.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078-
     091-093-095-097.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...DS