726
FXUS64 KLIX 171805 AAD
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
105 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Convection continues to bubble across the region late this
morning. Coverage is a bit less than yesterday, but this will be
temporary as many surface boundaries start to ignite shower and
thunderstorm activity into peak daytime heating. With that,
decided to drop highs just a bit across the board. No widespread
severe weather is anticipated, however, there could be locally
heavy rainfall and a strong wind gust or two in the strongest
activity, especially with a touch drier air moving into the area
in the mid and upper levels from the west. (Frye)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

I can see clearly now that rain has ended...for a few hours. Yep
thats right more storms can be expected today and tomorrow and
Thursday..and.......There is already a few showers and a few
thunderstorms that have been trying to develop overnight and once
the sun comes up storms will quickly start to percolate again.

Nothing has changed and nothing looks to really change for at least
another 48 to 60 hours. We remain between two ridges with the Lower
MS Valley in the middle of a weakness and even some troughiness.
with no real suppression in place and moisture abundant it won`t
take much to get convection and then once a few storms get going all
it takes is boundary interaction. If storms fire very early then
they will likely move through quickly but that would allow for
additional storms later in the afternoon and early evening as it
will not take anything for us to recover and destabilize. If storms
hold off till late morning/midday then we will likely see one more
prolonged round of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon
with things quickly quieting down mid/late evening. Favoring more of
a 2 clusters of storms approach today given what looks like
convection trying to fire already just off to our southwest.

The best things about the numerous storms and cloud cover is it does
help contain the afternoon temps some with most of the area only
getting into the upper 80s with a few lower 90s. That said can`t
really say it is much of a relief as the heat index is still
climbing into the mid to upper 90s today. However tomorrow and
through the week the heat index could be a bigger issue as low level
moisture looks to increase with the afternoon heat index back in
the low 100s for a good chunk of the area. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Well if you are ready for Summer it looks like it will finally
arrive by the end of the work week and through the weekend. That
said rain chances will still remain elevated they will just not be
as high as we have been dealing with and storms will likely be a
little more scattered. Models are in good agreement with the
evolution of the pattern so confidence is high in the forecast.
NBM may be a touch too high with the PoPs but afternoon highs and
morning lows look pretty good so no deviations made from the
latest NBM values.

Mid lvl pattern finally shifts with our ridge to the west sliding
east and building. By late Friday it will be centered over the Lower
MS Valley but it will only be a 593dm ridge which is not that stout
and with PWs still above 1.8" this may act a little more like a
dirty ridge. In addition the center of the ridge will be well north
of the area putting us on the southern periphery of it which guess
what, yep keeps the elevated rain chances over the area. PoPs will
be around 40-60% which is a far cry from the constant 70-90% we have
been seeing but still well above normal of 20-40%. H925 temps around
24-25C which if there is less rain and cloud cover should yield a
few more mid 90s but given the likelihood of scattered storms and
clouds isolated highs around 93-94 may be the best we see Friday,
not complaining.

This weekend the ridge will continue to build and by Sunday could be
597dm which is quite a bit stronger the problem is, it will be be
centered over the Ohio Valley. With it displaced so far to the NNE
we will be well into the easterlies which should yield daily
convection with each weak easterly wave that moves across the
northern Gulf and into the area. So yes slightly lower PoPs than now
but still pretty darn good chance of seeing storms for much of the
area.

One thing to mention is we will need to keep a closer eye on the
heat index Friday and through the weekend. If highs are able to get
into the mid 90s, the boundary layer will be very humid and the heat
index values will climb above 100 possibly approaching the mid 100s
for a few locations. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Scattered convection across the region this afternoon. Covered
most with TEMPOs through the remainder of peak heating. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected. There could be some visibility issues for
MCB with MVFR VIS just before sunrise, but this will be only a
couple hours at max. Otherwise, winds will remain generally light
and southerly. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Overall, benign marine conditions expected through the cycle a
high pressure dominates the region. Winds should generally be
moderate at max with some gusts up to 15 knots or so toward the
end of the week as surface high pressure interacts with the
leeside trough across the high plains. Otherwise, diurnally driven
convection typical for this time of year can be expected with
locally higher winds and seas in the heaviest convection. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  90  72  91 /  10  60  10  70
BTR  74  92  75  91 /  10  70  10  80
ASD  74  91  75  92 /  20  70  10  70
MSY  78  92  78  92 /  10  70  20  80
GPT  78  89  77  90 /  30  70  30  70
PQL  74  90  75  91 /  30  70  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB