653
FXUS64 KLIX 031121
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
621 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Front slowly moving through but rain will stick around today for
  the southeastern half/third of the area.

- Behind the front winds will quickly veer around to easterly and
  increase in speed. Winds of 20 to 30 knots across all waters
  will develop later today and persist through Friday. Small Craft
  Advisories are in effect through Friday.

- Strong easterly winds and spring tides are expected to lead to
  minor coastal flooding for portions of coastal MS and east
  facing shores of SELA east of the MS River. A Coastal Flood
  Advisory is in effect for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Front continues to move through the area and should be completely
off the coast by sunrise. Drier air is starting to quickly surge
southwest behind it only just now starting to enter the CWA.
Looking well behind the front to the northeast with dewpoints
dropping into the lower to mid 60s across central and northeastern
MS and even mid 50s in central AL. We have dewpoints that are now
in the upper 60s to lower 70s across out northeast and those will
continue to fall. The question is how far southwest does the drier
LL air make it. Overall the column will still be fairly moist but
the boundary layer could be on the drier side for the northeastern
3rd or that quadrant from I-55 east and along and north of the
10/12 corridor. The southwestern half of the CWA on the other hand
will likely remain on the wet side and models indicate that there
could be quite a bit of rain coverage wise across the river
parishes today. That said there are some questions with respect to
how much coverage we may see today. Some of the guidance
including the NBM have 60-80% PoPs for much of the area (only one
truly lower is PQL with 40-60% but that still seems a little
high). A few things: 1, we did have a front move through and will
make it completely through the area. 2, there is definitely some
decent drier air trying to surge into the area and it already
looks more impressive than what most of the models and guidance
had indicated (probs to the raw ECMWF, not the ECMWF MOS, as it
was one of the few that actually advertised dewpoints dropping
into the 50s across the northeast). 3, we will actually be seeing
isentropic downglide all day across most of the area. That alone
is not favorable for rain but is not the nail in the coffin.
Biggest factors determining rain will be if any real daytime
heating can occur and even though the front moved through is there
any remnant outflow boundary or very weak lake breeze that can
help a few showers kick off. There is an outflow boundary that has
moved into the area from the northeast that was from convection
that was well behind the front so there is that. Overall not very
confident in numerous to widespread showers today so we did back
off on the PoPs a little using a blend of the HREF and NBM which
kept PoPs for the most part in the 40-60% range. Highest
confidence in rain will be coastal SELA north to I-10. As for
thunderstorms, instability will be far more limited today and
showalters will barely be in the negative mostly ranging from 0 to
-1C. That does suggest some elevated instability will be present
 but mid level lapse rates will be quite anemic around 5.5 to
 maybe 6 C/km.

Winds behind our front will begin to veer more easterly and
increase especially across the coastal waters. This will begin to
create another issue, maybe as early as today for a few isolated
problem areas but especially Thursday and now likely into Friday
and that is tides. We are just going to start coming out of the
spring tide meaning we have large tide ranges right now and given
a moderate to strong easterly wind over the coastal waters it is
going to easily pile the water up across portions of the coast on
top of the high astronomical tide. Winds will not start to really
increase till midday early afternoon so tidal impacts may be a
little more isolated this afternoon plus with winds mainly
easterly and not as strong west of the mouth of the river we will
not be piling up the water on that side as much today and thus
canceled the Coastal Flood Advisory for areas west of the river
but that was only for today. The highest tidal impacts for much of
the region will be Thursday after 24-30 hours of strong easterly
winds driving water to the coast and given the shape of LA and MS
that water will not have anywhere to go. The problem now is that a
tropical wave which has already moved northeast out of the Yucatan
Channel will continue to work northwest into the central Gulf and
towards the LA coast Friday and onshore this weekend. That feature
along with the stout sfc high over the southern Appalachians will
lead to a tight pressure gradient over the Gulf and thus we will
continue to see strong easterly winds through Thursday night and
then winds will slowly start to veer more east-southeaserly Friday
which will continue to drive more water into the coast. With that
we will likely need to extend the Coastal Flood Advisory into
Friday for portions if not all of the coast. Also by Friday we
likely will have now driven in enough water through the Rigolets
and into the tidal lakes that both of them may need to be added to
the Adv.

Weatherwise, Thursday should be much drier for most of the area.
The front still in the Gulf will begin to washout some but it
won`t completely lose its identity till late Thursday with return
flow finally setting back up Friday. As that tropical wave starts
to work closer towards the coast Friday we will see moisture also
pile up over the area and that could become a little more of a
problem Friday and into the weekend as rich tropical moisture will
be in place leading to numerous to widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. We will need to watch closely if there is any
Flooding concerns, especially with high tides which will hinder
drainage from local rivers. We may be just enough on the fringe of
the ridge which will try to build across the Gulf this weekend or
if it is weaker we may get more of an influence from a closed mid
lvl low over Mexico to move closer towards the region this weekend
as it starts to kick out. Currently there is a Marginal Risk for
Excessive rainfall for the area Friday through the weekend. If the
ridge doesn`t have as much of an impact as currently indicated we
could see widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches with locally
higher amounts from today through the weekend. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An upper level trough tracking east across the northern half of the
country this weekend will flatten the ridge over the Southeast and
shift its center southward into the Gulf. Its center and strength at
this time will be a big driver of local weather. If its a bit
stronger and/or closer to the CWA early next week, look for a lot
less convection. Global model solutions suggest a bit weaker upper
ridge, which allows for much more widespread convection. Recent
overarching pattern would lean that way as well. Thus, latest
forecast falls right in line with that, holding POPs in at least in
the 50+% range, which some days closer to 80%. Much like typical
summer patter, showers and thunderstorms initially develop each day
along lake and sea breezes as we reach convective temperatures,
which will generally be in the mid 80s. From there, expect coverage
to ramp up considerably. Localized flash flooding will certainly be
a threat with potential for very high rainfall rates along with
outflow boundary interactions with storms possibly stagnating
movement for periods of time. Other threats include gusty winds and
frequent lightning with more intense storms.

As noted above, convective temperatures will generally be in the mid
80s, so high temperatures probably won`t get much warmer than that.
Overnight lows are likely to be in the 70s. /MEFFER/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

All terminals are in VFR status and should remain that way
until showers and storms move in later today, if they move over
the terminals. Main concern with TAFs is convection again but
overall most of it should be showers with isolated thunderstorms
and mainly along and west of a line from NEW to HDC to north of
BTR. This will likely lead to conditions dropping into MVFR and
IFR with cigs ranging from 1k to 2500 ft at times but that is
likely only under rain. Rain should slowly move closer towards the
coast early this evening. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The backdoor cold front is currently moving through the region and
was almost bisecting the region shortly after midnight. The front
will continues its slow march towards the coast moving off the MS
coast before the latest forecast is out. It will then slide off the
SELA coast just before sunrise. A very brief period of offshore
winds will occur immediately behind the front...brief. By mid late
morning winds will quickly veer to easterly over MS Sound along with
the Sounds and waters east of the Mississippi River Delta and
rapidly increase to Small Craft Advisory conditions. The winds will
finally start to shift more easterly south of the LA coast late
today and increase to Small Craft Advisory conditions late this
afternoon or this evening. The winds are responding to 2 features, a
large area of high pressure which will work down the Appalachians
and into the southeastern US while a weak tropical wave continues to
move northeast across the central Gulf and towards the LA coast by
the end of the week. These two features will keep a tight pressure
gradient in place leading to strong easterly and eventually
southeasterly winds into the weekend. This will lead to prolonged
hazardous marine conditions along with coastal flooding concerns,
especially along the coast east of the Mississippi River delta.

/CAB/

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Friday for LAZ070-076-078-091.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     LAZ093-095-097.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ529-531-532-534>536-554-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ533-541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ531-532-534>536-554-557-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB